NFL
NFL 2026
NFL handicapping trackers
NFL picks and betting angles covering ATS, totals, trends, team speed and contract motivation.
01Handicap Tracker
DraftKings market compared with the current Just J number
Handicap Tracker
DraftKings market compared with the current Just J number
| Game | DK line | Just J Line | Spread Edge Rating | DK total | Just J Total | Total Edge Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ JAX | -2.5 | -3.0 | 0.5 · No Edge / Pass | 42.5 | 42.5 | 0.0 · No Edge / Pass |
| CHI @ ATL | +1.5 | +2.0 | 0.5 · No Edge / Pass | 51.5 | 51.5 | 0.0 · No Edge / Pass |
| BAL @ CLE | +3.0 | +4.0 | 1.0 · Lean | 40.5 | 40.5 | 0.0 · No Edge / Pass |
| TEN @ IND | -7.0 | -6.5 | 0.5 · No Edge / Pass | 44.5 | 44.5 | 0.0 · No Edge / Pass |
| NYJ @ NE | -7.5 | -5.5 | 2.0 · Lean | 43.5 | 45.0 | 1.5 · Lean |
| NO @ NYG | +1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 · Lean | 46.5 | 46.5 | 0.0 · No Edge / Pass |
| CAR @ PHI | +3.5 | +6.0 | 2.5 · Strong Lean | 39.5 | 39.5 | 0.0 · No Edge / Pass |
| PIT @ TB | +2.5 | +2.5 | 0.0 · No Edge / Pass | 39.5 | 39.5 | 0.0 · No Edge / Pass |
| ARI @ LAR | -12.5 | -11.5 | 1.0 · Lean | 51.5 | 51.5 | 0.0 · No Edge / Pass |
| LAC @ KC | -7.5 | -12.0 | 4.5 · Max Edge | 41.5 | 41.5 | 0.0 · No Edge / Pass |
| BUF @ LV | +4.5 | +2.5 | 2.0 · Lean | 53.5 | 53.5 | 0.0 · No Edge / Pass |
| DAL @ GB | -1.5 | -1.0 | 0.5 · No Edge / Pass | 53.5 | 52.0 | 1.5 · Lean |
| WAS @ SF | -7.5 | -6.5 | 1.0 · Lean | 51.5 | 50.0 | 1.5 · Lean |
Games with a base spread move above 7 points or a Max Edge require manual review before publication.
02Spread & Totals Rankings
Current season first, followed by 2025 records
Spread & Totals Rankings
Current season first, followed by 2025 records
Loading current-season tracker…
| Team | 2026 Spread | 2026 Totals | 2026 Avg cover | 2025 Spread | 2025 Avg cover | 2025 Totals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | 6-11-0 | -4.12 | 10-7-0 | |
| — | — | — | 8-9-0 | -2.24 | 9-8-0 | |
| — | — | — | 6-11-0 | -2.53 | 11-6-0 | |
| — | — | — | 8-9-0 | +0.68 | 9-8-0 | |
| — | — | — | 10-7-0 | +0.12 | 7-10-0 | |
| — | — | — | 11-6-0 | +2.29 | 9-8-0 | |
| — | — | — | 8-9-0 | -2.41 | 9-8-0 | |
| — | — | — | 8-9-0 | -0.62 | 8-9-0 | |
| — | — | — | 7-10-0 | -2.71 | 13-4-0 | |
| — | — | — | 7-10-0 | +0.68 | 7-10-0 | |
| — | — | — | 8-9-0 | +0.09 | 10-7-0 | |
| — | — | — | 7-10-0 | -1.88 | 9-8-0 | |
| — | — | — | 9-8-0 | +4.12 | 6-11-0 | |
| — | — | — | 10-7-0 | +2.65 | 9-8-0 | |
| — | — | — | 12-5-0 | +6.94 | 10-7-0 | |
| — | — | — | 6-11-0 | -1.21 | 4-13-0 | |
| — | — | — | 7-10-0 | -6.24 | 8-9-0 | |
| — | — | — | 9-8-0 | +0.26 | 7-10-0 | |
| — | — | — | 12-5-0 | +3.94 | 10-7-0 | |
| — | — | — | 8-9-0 | -1.53 | 10-7-0 | |
| — | — | — | 8-9-0 | +1.82 | 8-9-0 | |
| — | — | — | 12-5-0 | +6.38 | 11-6-0 | |
| — | — | — | 9-8-0 | -0.65 | 5-12-0 | |
| — | — | — | 9-8-0 | +1.38 | 11-6-0 | |
| — | — | — | 7-10-0 | -5.68 | 11-6-0 | |
| — | — | — | 10-7-0 | -0.88 | 7-10-0 | |
| — | — | — | 9-8-0 | +0.79 | 9-8-0 | |
| — | — | — | 10-7-0 | +2.53 | 10-7-0 | |
| — | — | — | 12-5-0 | +7.00 | 9-8-0 | |
| — | — | — | 5-12-0 | -2.65 | 8-9-0 | |
| — | — | — | 7-10-0 | -3.82 | 11-6-0 | |
| — | — | — | 7-10-0 | -2.53 | 11-6-0 |
Note: the # in the 2026 spread column shows where each team ranks against the rest of the league for the current season — #1 is the best spread record, #32 the worst.
03Regular Season Trends (2022–2025)
Four-year ATS and over/under records for all 32 teams
Regular Season Trends (2022–2025)
Four-year ATS and over/under records for all 32 teams
Regular-season ATS (against the spread) and Over/Under records for all 32 NFL teams over the last 4 completed seasons, compiled to surface long-term handicapping trends.
Best cover trends
- Detroit Lions44-23-1 · 65.7%
- Pittsburgh Steelers40-26-2 · 60.6%
- Jacksonville Jaguars39-28-1 · 58.2%
- Cincinnati Bengals37-27-3 · 57.8%
- Los Angeles Rams38-28-2 · 57.6%
Best fade trends
- Tennessee Titans25-39-4 · 39.1%
- New York Jets27-40-1 · 40.3%
- Kansas City Chiefs27-39-2 · 40.9%
- Atlanta Falcons28-39-1 · 41.8%
- New Orleans Saints29-38-1 · 43.3%
Overs lean
- Dallas Cowboys42-25-1 · 62.7%
- Detroit Lions39-27-2 · 59.1%
- San Francisco 49ers38-28-2 · 57.6%
- Arizona Cardinals38-29-1 · 56.7%
- Cincinnati Bengals36-30-1 · 54.5%
Unders lean
- Kansas City Chiefs24-44-0 · 35.3%
- New Orleans Saints25-43-0 · 36.8%
- Houston Texans25-42-1 · 37.3%
- Los Angeles Chargers27-41-0 · 39.7%
- Atlanta Falcons29-39-0 · 42.6%
| Team | 2022 ATS | 2023 ATS | 2024 ATS | 2025 ATS | 4-yr ATS | ATS trend | 4-yr O/U | O/U trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 8-9 | 9-8 | 11-6 | 6-11 | 34-34 (50.0%) | No Real Trend | 38-29-1 (56.7%) | Strong Over Trend |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8-8-1 | 5-12 | 6-11 | 9-8 | 28-39-1 (41.8%) | Strong Fade Trend | 29-39 (42.6%) | Strong Under Trend |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6-9-2 | 11-6 | 11-6 | 6-11 | 34-32-2 (51.5%) | No Real Trend | 37-31 (54.4%) | Slight Over Lean |
| Buffalo Bills | 8-7-1 | 7-10 | 10-7 | 8-9 | 33-33-1 (50.0%) | No Real Trend | 32-34-1 (48.5%) | No Real Trend |
| Carolina Panthers | 9-8 | 4-11-2 | 8-9 | 10-7 | 31-35-2 (47.0%) | Slight Fade Lean | 33-34-1 (49.3%) | No Real Trend |
| Chicago Bears | 5-10-2 | 8-6-3 | 8-7-2 | 9-7-1 | 30-30-8 (50.0%) | No Real Trend | 34-34 (50.0%) | No Real Trend |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 12-3-1 | 7-8-2 | 10-7 | 8-9 | 37-27-3 (57.8%) | Strong Cover Trend | 36-30-1 (54.5%) | Slight Over Lean |
| Cleveland Browns | 8-9 | 9-6-2 | 4-13 | 8-9 | 29-37-2 (43.9%) | Strong Fade Trend | 33-33-2 (50.0%) | No Real Trend |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9-7-1 | 10-7 | 7-10 | 7-10 | 33-34-1 (49.3%) | No Real Trend | 42-25-1 (62.7%) | Elite Over Trend |
| Denver Broncos | 7-10 | 6-10-1 | 12-5 | 7-10 | 32-35-1 (47.8%) | Slight Fade Lean | 32-36 (47.1%) | Slight Under Lean |
| Detroit Lions | 12-5 | 12-5 | 12-4-1 | 8-9 | 44-23-1 (65.7%) | Elite Cover Trend | 39-27-2 (59.1%) | Strong Over Trend |
| Green Bay Packers | 8-9 | 9-8 | 8-8-1 | 6-11 | 31-36-1 (46.3%) | Slight Fade Lean | 35-32-1 (52.2%) | Slight Over Lean |
| Houston Texans | 8-8-1 | 9-8 | 7-9-1 | 9-8 | 33-33-2 (50.0%) | No Real Trend | 25-42-1 (37.3%) | Elite Under Trend |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6-11 | 9-8 | 9-8 | 9-8 | 33-35 (48.5%) | No Real Trend | 37-31 (54.4%) | Slight Over Lean |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8-8-1 | 9-8 | 10-7 | 12-5 | 39-28-1 (58.2%) | Strong Cover Trend | 35-33 (51.5%) | No Real Trend |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5-11-1 | 9-7-1 | 7-10 | 6-11 | 27-39-2 (40.9%) | Strong Fade Trend | 24-44 (35.3%) | Elite Under Trend |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 8-9 | 10-5-2 | 8-9 | 7-10 | 33-33-2 (50.0%) | No Real Trend | 32-36 (47.1%) | Slight Under Lean |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 11-5-1 | 5-11-1 | 13-4 | 9-8 | 38-28-2 (57.6%) | Strong Cover Trend | 27-41 (39.7%) | Elite Under Trend |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7-9-1 | 10-6-1 | 9-8 | 12-5 | 38-28-2 (57.6%) | Strong Cover Trend | 33-35 (48.5%) | No Real Trend |
| Miami Dolphins | 9-8 | 10-7 | 7-10 | 8-9 | 34-34 (50.0%) | No Real Trend | 35-33 (51.5%) | No Real Trend |
| Minnesota Vikings | 7-9-1 | 7-7-3 | 11-5-1 | 9-8 | 34-29-5 (54.0%) | Slight Cover Lean | 32-35-1 (47.8%) | Slight Under Lean |
| New England Patriots | 7-9-1 | 5-11-1 | 7-9-1 | 12-5 | 31-34-3 (47.7%) | Slight Fade Lean | 37-31 (54.4%) | Slight Over Lean |
| New Orleans Saints | 7-10 | 6-10-1 | 7-10 | 9-8 | 29-38-1 (43.3%) | Strong Fade Trend | 25-43 (36.8%) | Elite Under Trend |
| New York Giants | 13-4 | 8-8-1 | 5-12 | 9-8 | 35-32-1 (52.2%) | Slight Cover Lean | 30-37-1 (44.8%) | Strong Under Trend |
| New York Jets | 8-9 | 6-10-1 | 6-11 | 7-10 | 27-40-1 (40.3%) | Strong Fade Trend | 33-35 (48.5%) | No Real Trend |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8-9 | 7-8-2 | 11-6 | 10-7 | 36-30-2 (54.5%) | Slight Cover Lean | 33-35 (48.5%) | No Real Trend |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-6-1 | 10-7 | 11-6 | 9-7-1 | 40-26-2 (60.6%) | Elite Cover Trend | 31-37 (45.6%) | Slight Under Lean |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11-6 | 9-8 | 5-12 | 11-6 | 36-32 (52.9%) | Slight Cover Lean | 38-28-2 (57.6%) | Strong Over Trend |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7-10 | 8-7-2 | 6-11 | 12-5 | 33-33-2 (50.0%) | No Real Trend | 33-35 (48.5%) | No Real Trend |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-12-1 | 11-6 | 10-7 | 5-12 | 30-37-1 (44.8%) | Strong Fade Trend | 32-36 (47.1%) | Slight Under Lean |
| Tennessee Titans | 9-6-2 | 7-9-1 | 2-14-1 | 7-10 | 25-39-4 (39.1%) | Elite Fade Trend | 32-36 (47.1%) | Slight Under Lean |
| Washington Commanders | 8-8-1 | 6-10-1 | 10-7 | 7-10 | 31-35-2 (47.0%) | Slight Fade Lean | 36-31-1 (53.7%) | Slight Over Lean |
Regular season only (playoffs excluded for a consistent 17-game sample per team per year). Source: nflverse historical game/odds data (closing lines).
04Hunger Score
Contract motivation rankings, 1–32
Hunger Score
Contract motivation rankings, 1–32
LEAGUE-WIDE UNIT RANKINGS
Contract Motivation / “Hunger Score”
2026 League-Wide Rankings, All 32 Teams
Ranks each roster by real, documented contract-year and “prove-it” situations. Star skill-position players (starting QB, lead back, WR1, featured tight end) in the last year of their deal carry the most weight. Rosters whose only contract-year signal is a depth or non-skill veteran are marked ROLE and count for far less.
Full Rankings, 1–32
- 1.Los Angeles Rams (LAR) STAR — Matthew Stafford enters the final year of his contract with zero money guaranteed beyond 2026, while both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are on expiring deals — three core skill-position players all playing for their next contract at once.
- 2.Arizona Cardinals (ARI) STAR — Both of Arizona's projected 2026 quarterbacks are playing on one-year “prove-it” deals — Jacoby Brissett re-signed on a reworked $15.5M contract after Kyler Murray was released in March, and Gardner Minshew has pushed his way into the quarterback conversation — giving the Cardinals two skill-position players with their next contract squarely on the line.
- 3.Cincinnati Bengals (CIN) STAR — RB Chase Brown is playing out the final year of his rookie contract after extension talks with Cincinnati stalled this offseason, while 41-year-old backup QB Joe Flacco is back on a one-year deal behind Joe Burrow.
- 4.Cleveland Browns (CLE) STAR — QB Deshaun Watson enters the final year of his fully guaranteed five-year, $230M contract with zero long-term security beyond 2026, while WR Tylan Wallace signed a one-year “prove-it” deal after leaving Baltimore in free agency.
- 5.Kansas City Chiefs (KC) STAR — TE Travis Kelce is playing on a brand-new one-year, fully guaranteed $12M contract he signed in March 2026, and RB Kareem Hunt returned to Kansas City on another one-year “prove-it” deal — two veteran playmakers with zero long-term security heading into 2026.
- 6.Las Vegas Raiders (LV) STAR — QB Kirk Cousins signed a pure one-year deal with Las Vegas even as the Raiders used the No. 1 overall pick on his likely long-term replacement, and WR Tre Tucker is in the contract-deciding final year of his rookie deal.
- 7.Minnesota Vikings (MIN) STAR — QB Kyler Murray signed a one-year “prove-it” deal after his release from Arizona and beat out J.J. McCarthy for the Week 1 starting job — as high-stakes a contract year as exists in the league — while RB Aaron Jones took a pay cut to a one-year deal just to stay in Minnesota.
- 8.Dallas Cowboys (DAL) STAR — George Pickens is playing on the franchise tag with his long-term future still unresolved; CB Cobie Durant also signed a one-year “prove-it” deal after arriving via free agency.
- 9.New Orleans Saints (NO) STAR — RB Alvin Kamara is playing on the final year of his contract after taking a pay cut in a July 2026 restructure widely viewed as a signal this could be his last run in New Orleans, while S Julian Blackmon is playing out a one-year deal of his own.
- 10.Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT) STAR — Aaron Rodgers returned to Pittsburgh on a literal one-year, roughly $22–25M “prove-it” deal for 2026, while CB Asante Samuel Jr. re-signed on his own one-year, $4M prove-it deal.
- 11.Tennessee Titans (TEN) STAR — RB Tony Pollard is in the final year of his contract and has called it extra motivation heading into 2026, while OL Cordell Volson signed a one-year “prove-it” deal after missing all of 2025 to shoulder surgery.
- 12.Chicago Bears (CHI) STAR — RB D'Andre Swift's situation beyond 2026 remains genuinely uncertain, adding real motivation to his contract year.
- 13.Denver Broncos (DEN) STAR — TE Evan Engram is in the true final year of the two-year, $23M contract he signed with Denver in 2025, with only $5M guaranteed remaining — WR Courtland Sutton's deal was also reworked into what beat reporters have called a “cap trap” this offseason, though it technically runs through 2029.
- 14.Detroit Lions (DET) STAR — TE Sam LaPorta is in a make-or-break contract year after his production dropped off following a strong rookie season — 2026 is widely viewed as his chance to prove he deserves a top-tier second contract.
- 15.Indianapolis Colts (IND) STAR — RB Jonathan Taylor is in the final year of the three-year extension he signed back in 2023.
- 16.Seattle Seahawks (SEA) STAR — QB Sam Darnold has no money guaranteed beyond 2026 on his contract — real stakes for a quarterback even after leading the team to a Super Bowl.
- 17.New York Giants (NYG) ROLE — The Giants brought in two skill-position players on one-year “prove-it” deals this offseason — RB Najee Harris, who has “a lot to prove” after leaving Pittsburgh, and WR Darnell Mooney on a $10M “show-me” deal following his release from Atlanta — while LB Micah McFadden is also playing on a one-year prove-it contract of his own.
- 18.Carolina Panthers (CAR) ROLE — QB Kenny Pickett signed a one-year, $7.5M “prove-it” deal to back up Bryce Young, while TE Tommy Tremble is in the final year of the two-year contract he re-signed in 2025 — two skill-position players with direct financial incentive to perform in 2026.
- 19.Green Bay Packers (GB) ROLE — TE Luke Musgrave is playing out the final year of his rookie deal with his roster spot genuinely in question, and WR Skyy Moore signed a one-year “prove-it” deal trying to resurrect his career after flaming out as a former second-round pick in Kansas City.
- 20.Miami Dolphins (MIA) ROLE — WR Jalen Tolbert signed a one-year “prove-it” deal with Miami after leaving Dallas, stepping into a lead receiving role with everything to play for, while edge rusher Josh Uche also joined on a one-year prove-it deal.
- 21.New England Patriots (NE) ROLE — WR DeMario Douglas is playing out the walk year of his rookie contract with no extension talks reported all offseason, while S Kevin Byard signed a one-year, $9M “prove-it” deal after his release from Chicago.
- 22.Washington Commanders (WAS) ROLE — RB Rachaad White signed a one-year, $2M “prove-it” deal after leaving Tampa Bay, and DE Deatrich Wise Jr. also joined Washington on a one-year contract in free agency.
- 23.Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX) ROLE — RB Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s deal is papered as two years but functions as a practical one-year, $6.2M “prove-it” contract via void years, per Spotrac — a fresh shot after being cut twice by his previous team.
- 24.New York Jets (NYJ) ROLE — S Andre Cisco took a steep pay cut to a one-year, $2.5M “prove-it” deal after 2025 shoulder surgery, and DT David Onyemata signed a separate one-year, $10.5M prove-it deal in free agency.
- 25.Atlanta Falcons (ATL) ROLE — OL Jawaan Taylor signed a one-year, no-guaranteed-money “prove-it” deal at right tackle.
- 26.Baltimore Ravens (BAL) ROLE — DT Calais Campbell returned to Baltimore on a one-year “prove-it” deal in free agency — the lone hunger-score signal on a roster that spent the offseason locking up nearly every core skill player long-term.
- 27.Buffalo Bills (BUF) ROLE — S C.J. Gardner-Johnson signed a one-year “prove-it” deal with Buffalo — the only real motivation angle on a roster that spent the offseason extending nearly its entire skill-position core.
- 28.Houston Texans (HOU) ROLE — DT Denico Autry took a pay cut to a one-year “prove-it” deal this offseason.
- 29.Los Angeles Chargers (LAC) ROLE — Edge Khalil Mack is on a one-year re-signing entering his 13th season — still productive, but without long-term security.
- 30.Philadelphia Eagles (PHI) ROLE — CB Riq Woolen signed a one-year “prove-it” deal after losing his starting job in Seattle.
- 31.San Francisco 49ers (SF) ROLE — LB Dre Greenlaw returned on a one-year re-signing after a stint in Denver.
- 32.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB) ROLE — DL A'Shawn Robinson signed a one-year, $10M “prove-it” deal with Tampa Bay — the only verifiable contract-year signal on a roster that saw Baker Mayfield sign a three-year extension right before Week 1.
06Playoff Trends (2016–2025)
Ten postseasons of ATS and over/under records, all 32 teams
Playoff Trends (2016–2025)
Ten postseasons of ATS and over/under records, all 32 teams
ATS (against the spread) and Over/Under records for all 32 NFL teams across their playoff games over the last 10 postseasons (Wild Card through Super Bowl), compiled to surface long-term playoff handicapping trends.
Playoff sample sizes are small and uneven — a team that missed the playoffs several times in this span may have very few games. Teams with fewer than 3 playoff games in this span are tagged "insufficient" and shown muted/gray rather than color-coded, since a percentage from 1-2 games is not a real trend.
Best playoff cover trends
- Washington Commanders3-1-0 · 75.0% · 4g
- Cincinnati Bengals5-2-0 · 71.4% · 7g
- Cleveland Browns2-1-0 · 66.7% · 3g
- Denver Broncos2-1-0 · 66.7% · 3g
- Indianapolis Colts2-1-0 · 66.7% · 3g
Best playoff fade trends
- Dallas Cowboys1-6-0 · 14.3% · 7g
- Minnesota Vikings1-5-0 · 16.7% · 6g
- Los Angeles Chargers1-4-0 · 20.0% · 5g
- Pittsburgh Steelers2-7-0 · 22.2% · 9g
- New Orleans Saints2-5-0 · 28.6% · 7g
Playoff overs lean
- Green Bay Packers9-3-0 · 75.0% · 12g
- Washington Commanders3-1-0 · 75.0% · 4g
- Seattle Seahawks7-3-0 · 70.0% · 10g
- Cleveland Browns2-1-0 · 66.7% · 3g
- New York Giants2-1-0 · 66.7% · 3g
Playoff unders lean
- Cincinnati Bengals1-6-0 · 14.3% · 7g
- Baltimore Ravens2-6-1 · 25.0% · 9g
- Chicago Bears1-3-0 · 25.0% · 4g
- New Orleans Saints2-5-0 · 28.6% · 7g
- Tennessee Titans2-5-0 · 28.6% · 7g
| Team | Trips | Games | SU | ATS | ATS trend | O/U | O/U trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 (0.0%) | Not Enough Playoff Games | 0-1 (0.0%) | Not Enough Playoff Games |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 (60.0%) | Elite Cover Trend | 3-2 (60.0%) | Elite Over Trend |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 9 | 3-6 | 4-5 (44.4%) | Strong Fade Trend | 2-6-1 (25.0%) | Elite Under Trend |
| Buffalo Bills | 8 | 16 | 8-8 | 7-9 (43.8%) | Strong Fade Trend | 10-6 (62.5%) | Elite Over Trend |
| Carolina Panthers | 2 | 2 | 0-2 | 2-0 (100.0%) | Not Enough Playoff Games | 2-0 (100.0%) | Not Enough Playoff Games |
| Chicago Bears | 3 | 4 | 1-3 | 2-2 (50.0%) | No Real Trend | 1-3 (25.0%) | Elite Under Trend |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 7 | 5-2 | 5-2 (71.4%) | Elite Cover Trend | 1-6 (14.3%) | Elite Under Trend |
| Cleveland Browns | 2 | 3 | 1-2 | 2-1 (66.7%) | Elite Cover Trend | 2-1 (66.7%) | Elite Over Trend |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5 | 7 | 2-5 | 1-6 (14.3%) | Elite Fade Trend | 4-3 (57.1%) | Strong Over Trend |
| Denver Broncos | 2 | 3 | 1-2 | 2-1 (66.7%) | Elite Cover Trend | 1-2 (33.3%) | Elite Under Trend |
| Detroit Lions | 3 | 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 (40.0%) | Elite Fade Trend | 3-2 (60.0%) | Elite Over Trend |
| Green Bay Packers | 7 | 12 | 5-7 | 6-6 (50.0%) | No Real Trend | 9-3 (75.0%) | Elite Over Trend |
| Houston Texans | 6 | 11 | 5-6 | 6-5 (54.5%) | Slight Cover Lean | 6-4-1 (60.0%) | Elite Over Trend |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 3 | 1-2 | 2-1 (66.7%) | Elite Cover Trend | 1-2 (33.3%) | Elite Under Trend |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 6 | 3-3 | 4-2 (66.7%) | Elite Cover Trend | 2-4 (33.3%) | Elite Under Trend |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9 | 23 | 17-6 | 14-9 (60.9%) | Elite Cover Trend | 10-12-1 (45.5%) | Slight Under Lean |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 (0.0%) | Not Enough Playoff Games | 1-1 (50.0%) | Not Enough Playoff Games |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 4 | 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 (20.0%) | Elite Fade Trend | 3-2 (60.0%) | Elite Over Trend |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 16 | 10-6 | 8-8 (50.0%) | No Real Trend | 7-9 (43.8%) | Strong Under Trend |
| Miami Dolphins | 3 | 3 | 0-3 | 1-2 (33.3%) | Elite Fade Trend | 1-2 (33.3%) | Elite Under Trend |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4 | 6 | 2-4 | 1-5 (16.7%) | Elite Fade Trend | 3-3 (50.0%) | No Real Trend |
| New England Patriots | 6 | 15 | 11-4 | 9-6 (60.0%) | Elite Cover Trend | 9-6 (60.0%) | Elite Over Trend |
| New Orleans Saints | 4 | 7 | 3-4 | 2-5 (28.6%) | Elite Fade Trend | 2-5 (28.6%) | Elite Under Trend |
| New York Giants | 2 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 (33.3%) | Elite Fade Trend | 2-1 (66.7%) | Elite Over Trend |
| New York Jets | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | Not Enough Playoff Games | 0-0 | Not Enough Playoff Games |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8 | 16 | 10-6 | 10-6 (62.5%) | Elite Cover Trend | 7-9 (43.8%) | Strong Under Trend |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 9 | 2-7 | 2-7 (22.2%) | Elite Fade Trend | 5-4 (55.6%) | Strong Over Trend |
| San Francisco 49ers | 5 | 14 | 9-5 | 8-6 (57.1%) | Strong Cover Trend | 4-9-1 (30.8%) | Elite Under Trend |
| Seattle Seahawks | 6 | 10 | 5-5 | 6-4 (60.0%) | Elite Cover Trend | 7-3 (70.0%) | Elite Over Trend |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 10 | 6-4 | 5-5 (50.0%) | No Real Trend | 5-5 (50.0%) | No Real Trend |
| Tennessee Titans | 4 | 7 | 3-4 | 3-4 (42.9%) | Strong Fade Trend | 2-5 (28.6%) | Elite Under Trend |
| Washington Commanders | 2 | 4 | 2-2 | 3-1 (75.0%) | Elite Cover Trend | 3-1 (75.0%) | Elite Over Trend |
Postseason only: Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, Super Bowl. Source: nflverse historical game/odds data (closing lines).
07Betting myths & cliches
Sayings that grade at 50-50 or worse once you pay the juice
Betting myths & cliches
Sayings that grade at 50-50 or worse once you pay the juice
Break-even at standard -110 pricing is 52.4%. Anything landing near 50% is a losing bet long term, even if it "wins" more than it loses.
- “Home dogs always cover”Coin flip
Take any underdog getting points at home and you print money.
The edge that existed in the 1980s–90s is long gone. Since 2010 home underdogs sit right around the break-even line, and once you pay -110 juice the play is a net loser over a full season.
Long-run grade: ≈49–51% ATS
- “Defense wins championships”Priced in
Back the better defense against the spread.
Top-10 scoring defenses cover at close to a coin flip because the market already shortens their number. Since 2015 the league's best defenses have not produced a profitable blind ATS system in any season.
Long-run grade: ≈49% ATS
- “Home teams cover in stand-alone primetime games”Under 50%
Monday and Thursday night hosts have a big edge.
Primetime home teams have graded below break-even for the last decade, and Thursday hosts in particular are one of the weakest repeatable spots — short rest hurts both sides equally while the public inflates the home number.
Long-run grade: ≈47–49% ATS
- “Fade the team coming off a huge blowout win”Coin flip
Letdown spots are automatic.
Blowout winners are better teams, and closing lines already adjust for the result. Blind fades of last-week blowout winners land in the high 40s to low 50s — noise, not a system.
Long-run grade: ≈50% ATS
- “Teams off a bye are a lock”Coin flip
Extra prep week equals cover.
The bye-week bump was real before 2000. Modern books build roughly a point into the number, and post-bye teams have hovered at or slightly under break-even since 2010.
Long-run grade: ≈49–50% ATS
- “Bad weather means bet the under”Priced in
Wind, rain, and cold crush scoring.
Totals in bad-weather games get moved down before kickoff. Blind unders in cold or rain grade near 50%; only extreme wind (roughly 15+ mph sustained) still shows an edge, and even that gets shaded once forecasts firm up.
Long-run grade: ≈50% to the under
- “Never lay big points in the NFL”Coin flip
Double-digit favorites don't cover.
Favorites of 10 or more have cover rates right around 50% across the last 20 seasons. Backdoor covers are memorable, not predictive.
Long-run grade: ≈50% ATS
- “Revenge games matter”Coin flip
Teams beaten earlier in the year get up for the rematch.
Division rematches by the team that lost round one grade essentially at break-even. Whatever motivation exists is smaller than normal week-to-week variance.
Long-run grade: ≈50% ATS
- “Fade the public”Under 50%
Blindly bet whatever side gets under 30% of tickets.
Contrarian ticket-count fading alone has been a losing play in the NFL for years. Without money-percentage and line-movement context, the raw fade grades below break-even.
Long-run grade: ≈48–49% ATS
- “West Coast teams can't win early East Coast games”Under 50%
The 10 AM body-clock spot is automatic.
The old body-clock angle has been badly diluted by charter schedules and early-arrival travel. Recent decade grades near or below break-even for the fade.
Long-run grade: ≈48–50% ATS
- “Run the ball and control the clock to win”Coin flip
The team with more rush attempts covers.
Rush attempts are a result of leading, not a cause of it. Backing the higher-volume run team after the fact is pure reverse causation and offers no ATS edge.
Long-run grade: ≈50% ATS
- “Preseason form predicts the regular season”Coin flip
Ride the teams that looked good in August.
Preseason snaps come mostly from players who won't play meaningful downs. Correlation to Week 1–4 ATS results is effectively zero.
Long-run grade: no measurable edge
Rates are approximate long-run ranges from publicly available closing-line studies of the modern era. Treat them as directional, not exact — the point is that none of these clear the 52.4% you need.
How to use this page
- Log actual games that match these situations in your own Notes pages as the year unfolds — building your own small, verified sample is more valuable than trusting an unsourced historical percentage.
- Cross-reference with the Power Ratings, Defensive Efficiency Splits, and Referee Tracker pages elsewhere in this guide — a situational angle is far more interesting when it lines up with a real, sourced statistical edge than when it stands alone.