JUSTJ SPORTS PICKS
2026 — WEEK 1
Vegas spreads and totals already price in quarterback quality and home field advantage — the market is very efficient at both. This model instead isolates four factors the line may not fully capture: offensive line, defensive line, contract-year motivation (“hunger”), and turnover differential (a proxy for team discipline and ball security). Each is weighted equally. “Bet On” shows which side of the current Vegas number these four factors favor.
| DATE / TIME | HOME | VISITOR | VEGAS LINE | TOTAL | BET ON |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wed 9/9 8:20 PM | SEA | NE | SEA -3.5 | 44.5 | SEA -3.5 / Under 44.5 |
Thu 9/10 8:35 PM | LAR | SF | LAR -3.5 | 48.5 | LAR -3.5 / Under 48.5 |
Sun 9/13 12:00 PM | TEN | NYJ | TEN -1.5 | 38.5 | TEN -1.5 / Over 38.5 |
Sun 9/13 1:00 PM | PIT | ATL | PIT -3.5 | 42.5 | PIT -3.5 / Under 42.5 |
Sun 9/13 1:00 PM | IND | BAL | BAL -3.5 | 48.5 | IND +3.5 / Under 48.5 |
Sun 9/13 1:00 PM | HOU | BUF | BUF -1.5 | 44.5 | HOU +1.5 / Under 44.5 |
Sun 9/13 1:00 PM | CAR | CHI | CHI -2.5 | 47.5 | CHI -2.5 / Under 47.5 |
Sun 9/13 1:00 PM | CIN | TB | CIN -3.5 | 50.5 | TB +3.5 / Under 50.5 |
Sun 9/13 1:00 PM | JAX | CLE | JAX -7.5 | 40.5 | JAX -7.5 / Over 40.5 |
Sun 9/13 1:00 PM | DET | NO | DET -7.0 | 49.5 | DET -7.0 / Over 49.5 |
Sun 9/13 4:25 PM | LAC | ARI | LAC -10.5 | 46.5 | LAC -10.5 / Over 46.5 |
Sun 9/13 4:25 PM | MIN | GB | MIN -1.5 | 45.5 | GB +1.5 / Over 45.5 |
Sun 9/13 4:25 PM | LV | MIA | LV -3.5 | 40.5 | LV -3.5 / Over 40.5 |
Sun 9/13 4:25 PM | PHI | WAS | PHI -5.5 | 45.5 | PHI -5.5 / Over 45.5 |
Sun 9/13 8:20 PM | NYG | DAL | DAL -2.5 | 48.5 | DAL -2.5 / Over 48.5 |
Mon 9/14 8:15 PM | KC | DEN | KC -3.0 | 42.5 | DEN +3.0 / Under 42.5 |
Vegas lines via DraftKings Sportsbook (as of Sept. 3, 2026) and subject to change before kickoff. This sheet reflects one simple statistical model — it does not account for injuries, weather, coaching matchups, or situational trends, and is provided for entertainment and discussion purposes only, not as betting advice.
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JustJ Picks Tracker
vs the closing number
Season
2026
Season starts Week 1. Every JustJ ATS and total play gets graded here against the closing line.
Check back after kickoff — no picks graded yet.