KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

2026 schedule

• Wk 1DENat Denver BroncosSpread —Total —Mon 9/14 · 8:15 PM
• Wk 2INDvs Indianapolis ColtsSpread —Total —Sun 9/20 · 8:15 PM
• Wk 3MIAat Miami DolphinsSpread —Total —Sun 9/27 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 4LVat Las Vegas RaidersSpread —Total —Sun 10/4 · 4:25 PM
• Wk 5Bye week
• Wk 6LACvs Los Angeles ChargersSpread -7.5Total 41.5Sun 10/18 · 4:25 PM
  JustJ pickSpread KC -7.5 ★★★★★5 out of 5Totals No playJust J Line -12 · Edge Rating 4.5 — Max Edge · DK Total 41.5 · Just J Total 41.5

  Matchup context

  Season to date · ▲▼ vs league avg

  Team	RZ TD%	RZ TD% allow	Expl%	Expl% allow	Sack% allow	Sack% gen	Plays/G
  LAC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
  KC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
  Lg avg	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

  Context only — doesn't change the Just J Total.

  Fire Plays
• Wk 7SEAat Seattle SeahawksSpread —Total —Sun 10/25 · 8:15 PM
• Wk 8DENat Denver BroncosSpread —Total —Sun 11/1 · 4:25 PM
• Wk 9NYJvs New York JetsSpread —Total —Sun 11/8 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 10ATLat Atlanta FalconsSpread —Total —Sun 11/15 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 11ARIvs Arizona CardinalsSpread —Total —Sun 11/22 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 12BUFat Buffalo BillsSpread —Total —Thu 11/26 · 8:20 PM
• Wk 13LARat Los Angeles RamsSpread —Total —Thu 12/3 · 8:15 PM
• Wk 14CINat Cincinnati BengalsSpread —Total —Sun 12/13 · 4:25 PM
• Wk 15NEvs New England PatriotsSpread —Total —Mon 12/21 · 8:15 PM
• Wk 16SFvs San Francisco 49ersSpread —Total —Sun 12/27 · 4:25 PM
• Wk 17TBDvs TBDSpread —Total —
• Wk 18TBDvs TBDSpread —Total —

JustJ picks are only posted for the current week's slate — see the full sheet on the Picks page.

Schedule & market notes

• Bye: Week 5 — an early bye — a long back half of the season with no scheduled rest.
• Short-week / non-Sunday games: 2 Thursday, 2 Monday — short-rest games carry their own well-documented ATS variance, worth flagging on your calendar as they approach.

Power ratings — strength against the field

Turnover differential -1 · 2025 results, Just J Football Companion / Pro-Football-Reference.

Power ratings & 2025 results

• 2025 record: 6-11-0 — Points For 362, Points Against 328 (differential +34).
• Margin of Victory: +2.0 pts/game — the average scoring margin across all 2025 games, win or lose.
• Strength of Schedule (SoS): -0.1 — Pro-Football-Reference's SRS-based measure of 2025 opponent quality; positive means a tougher slate than average.
• SRS (power rating): +1.9 — Simple Rating System score, which converts directly to a projected point spread on a neutral field against a leagueaverage team.
• Offensive SRS: -1.9 · Defensive SRS: +3.8 — the SRS power rating split into offensive and defensive components; higher offensive and higher defensive figures are both better.
• Turnover differential: -1 — total takeaways minus giveaways across the 2025 season, one of the more volatile year-to-year metrics and worth weighing against the rest of this profile rather than on its own.

League-wide unit ranks

Handicapping notes

• Grass: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium — 2025: 6-11 straight-up, 6-11 against the spread.
• : Patrick Mahomes's recovery from a torn ACL/LCL is the swing factor for the entire Chiefs season — treat Kansas City as a genuine unknown until he's confirmed full-go.
• : Trading two-time All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie to the Rams is a real secondary downgrade to track, especially against pass-heavy opponents early in the season.

Pro Bowlers

• Offense: C Creed Humphrey, OG Trey Smith, TE Travis Kelce
• Defense: DT Chris Jones

Coaching staff

• Head Coach

  Andy Reid

  14th season

• Offensive Coordinator

  Eric Bieniemy

  returns as OC

• Offensive Line Coach

  Andy Heck

• Defensive Coordinator

  Steve Spagnuolo

  returning

• Defensive Line Coach

  Joe Cullen

Offensive unit ranks

Key skill players

• QB1Patrick Mahomes(recovering from a torn ACL/LCL suffered in December 2025; targeting a Week 1 return, with Justin Fields as insurance after an offseason trade from the Jets)
• RB1Kenneth Walker III(free-agent addition; Super Bowl LX MVP)
• WR1Rashee Rice
• WR2Xavier Worthy
• TE1Travis Kelce
• TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST)Chiefs D/ST

Defensive unit ranks

Defensive efficiency

• 5.2 yards allowed per play, 13th of 32.
• 23.6% pressure rate generated (blitzed on 31.3% of dropbacks), 13th of 32.
• 37.7% opponent drive scoring rate — a middle-of-the-pack mark.
• 7.8% opponent drive turnover rate — roughly league-average.
• 75 missed tackles on the season.