KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
AFC West•6-11 SU · 6-11 ATS•GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
2026 Just J Football Companion profile
Schedule
Next up · Week 1
at Denver Broncos
Mon 9/14 · 8:15 PM
2026 schedule
- Wk 1at Denver BroncosSpread —Total —Mon 9/14 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 2vs Indianapolis ColtsSpread —Total —Sun 9/20 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 3at Miami DolphinsSpread —Total —Sun 9/27 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 4at Las Vegas RaidersSpread —Total —Sun 10/4 · 4:25 PM
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- Wk 5Bye week
- Wk 6vs Los Angeles ChargersSpread —Total —Sun 10/18 · 4:25 PM
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- Wk 7at Seattle SeahawksSpread —Total —Sun 10/25 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 8at Denver BroncosSpread —Total —Sun 11/1 · 4:25 PM
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- Wk 9vs New York JetsSpread —Total —Sun 11/8 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 10at Atlanta FalconsSpread —Total —Sun 11/15 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 11vs Arizona CardinalsSpread —Total —Sun 11/22 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 12at Buffalo BillsSpread —Total —Thu 11/26 · 8:20 PM
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- Wk 13at Los Angeles RamsSpread —Total —Thu 12/3 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 14at Cincinnati BengalsSpread —Total —Sun 12/13 · 4:25 PM
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- Wk 15vs New England PatriotsSpread —Total —Mon 12/21 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 16vs San Francisco 49ersSpread —Total —Sun 12/27 · 4:25 PM
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- Wk 17vs TBDSpread —Total —
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- Wk 18vs TBDSpread —Total —
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Every game gets a JustJ pick — ATS side and total. Posted numbers are used the moment books hang them; until then the pick is quoted on the JustJ line and refreshes each week.
Schedule & market notes
- Bye: Week 5 — an early bye — a long back half of the season with no scheduled rest.
- Short-week / non-Sunday games: 2 Thursday, 2 Monday — short-rest games carry their own well-documented ATS variance, worth flagging on your calendar as they approach.
53-MAN ROSTER
Handicapping
Betting profile — vs. the number
2025 ATS
6-11
35.3% cover rate — 31st of 32
2025 Straight up
6-11
Point differential +34
Scoring environment
40.6
Combined points per game — 28th highest of 32
Home venue
Grass
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Points scored / allowed
21.3 per game scored (21st) · 19.3 allowed (6th)
Margin & schedule
Margin of victory +2 (12th) · Strength of schedule -0.1
- Trend: Patrick Mahomes's recovery from a torn ACL/LCL is the swing factor for the entire Chiefs season — treat Kansas City as a genuine unknown until he's confirmed full-go.
- Trend: Trading two-time All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie to the Rams is a real secondary downgrade to track, especially against pass-heavy opponents early in the season.
Power ratings — strength against the field
SRS power rating
+1.9
12th of 32 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field
Offensive SRS
-1.9
22nd of 32
Defensive SRS
+3.8
6th of 32
Points (margin of victory)
+2 · 12th of 32
Against the spread
6-11 (35.3%) · 31st of 32
Totals (combined PPG)
40.6 · 28th of 32
Turnover differential -1 · 2025 results, Just J Football Companion / Pro-Football-Reference.
Power ratings & 2025 results
- 2025 record: 6-11-0 — Points For 362, Points Against 328 (differential +34).
- Margin of Victory: +2.0 pts/game — the average scoring margin across all 2025 games, win or lose.
- Strength of Schedule (SoS): -0.1 — Pro-Football-Reference's SRS-based measure of 2025 opponent quality; positive means a tougher slate than average.
- SRS (power rating): +1.9 — Simple Rating System score, which converts directly to a projected point spread on a neutral field against a leagueaverage team.
- Offensive SRS: -1.9 · Defensive SRS: +3.8 — the SRS power rating split into offensive and defensive components; higher offensive and higher defensive figures are both better.
- Turnover differential: -1 — total takeaways minus giveaways across the 2025 season, one of the more volatile year-to-year metrics and worth weighing against the rest of this profile rather than on its own.
League-wide unit ranks
Offensive Line
8
Defensive Line / Front Seven
19
Chris Jones elite again (90+ pass-rush grade 7 of 8 years); George Karlaftis career-high 75.9 grade
Linebackers
15
Nick Bolton (career-high 78.9 grade) and Drue Tranquill (career-best 76.2) form a plus duo
Defensive Backs / Secondary
—
Historically one of the league's top units; Trent McDuffie's departure (traded to Rams) is a real question mark heading into 2026
Special Teams
—
Kicker: Harrison Butker
Overall Offense
22
Offensive SRS: -1.9
Overall Defense
6
Defensive SRS: +3.8
Handicapping notes
- Grass: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium — 2025: 6-11 straight-up, 6-11 against the spread.
- : Patrick Mahomes's recovery from a torn ACL/LCL is the swing factor for the entire Chiefs season — treat Kansas City as a genuine unknown until he's confirmed full-go.
- : Trading two-time All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie to the Rams is a real secondary downgrade to track, especially against pass-heavy opponents early in the season.
Pro Bowlers
- Offense: C Creed Humphrey, OG Trey Smith, TE Travis Kelce
- Defense: DT Chris Jones
Coaches
Coaching staff
Head Coach
Andy Reid
14th season
Offensive Coordinator
Eric Bieniemy
returns as OC
Offensive Line Coach
Andy Heck
Defensive Coordinator
Steve Spagnuolo
returning
Defensive Line Coach
Joe Cullen
Offense
Offensive unit ranks
Offensive Line Rank
23/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Key skill players
- QB1Patrick Mahomes(recovering from a torn ACL/LCL suffered in December 2025; targeting a Week 1 return, with Justin Fields as insurance after an offseason trade from the Jets)QB15
- RB1Kenneth Walker III(free-agent addition; Super Bowl LX MVP)RB13
- WR1Rashee RiceWR8
- WR2Xavier Worthyoutside the top 40 WRs
- TE1Travis KelceTE11
- TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST)Chiefs D/ST
Key Offensive Line
LT Josh SimmonsOhio State
still on his rookie contract (2025 1st-round pick). 2nd NFL season; drafted to eventually take over as Mahomes's blindside protector after a national-championship pedigree at Ohio State.
C Creed HumphreyOklahoma
core veteran extension; ranked among the league's top centers. 6th NFL season; one of four members of Kansas City's 2021 draft class retained beyond their rookie deals.
RG Trey SmithTennessee
4 yr / $94M extension, $70M guaranteed; ~$23.5M AAV, the NFL's highest-paid guard at signing. 6th NFL season; re-signed after playing on the franchise tag.
Defense
Defensive unit ranks
Defensive Line Rank (front seven)
12/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Defensive efficiency
- 5.2 yards allowed per play, 13th of 32.
- 23.6% pressure rate generated (blitzed on 31.3% of dropbacks), 13th of 32.
- 37.7% opponent drive scoring rate — a middle-of-the-pack mark.
- 7.8% opponent drive turnover rate — roughly league-average.
- 75 missed tackles on the season.
Key Defensive Line
DT Chris JonesMississippi State
5 yr / $158.75M extension, $95M guaranteed; ~$31.75M AAV, the NFL's highest-paid defensive tackle at signing. 9th NFL season; an All-Pro and the anchor of Kansas City's defensive front.
Edge George KarlaftisPurdue
signed an extension during 2025 training camp that could keep him in Kansas City through 2030. 5th NFL season; the team's steady, top returning pass rusher off the edge.
Edge Mike DannaMichigan
returning starter opposite Karlaftis; 6th NFL season, a reliable run-and-pass defender who's started for Kansas City's recent playoff runs.
Key Linebackers
MLB Nick BoltonMissouri
re-signed on the franchise tag before reaching a long-term deal; 6th NFL season, coming off a 154-tackle 2025 campaign.
LB Drue TranquillNotre Dame
free-agent signing; 8th NFL season, brought in to start at the SAM linebacker spot alongside Bolton.
LB Leo ChenalWisconsin
returning rotational linebacker; 5th NFL season, a core special-teams contributor who's carved out a role in subpackages.
Key Defensive Backs
CB Kristian FultonLSU
veteran addition stepping into a starting role; 7th NFL season, part of a cornerback room remade after trading two- time All-Pro Trent McDuffie to the Rams.
S Chamarri ConnerVirginia Tech
still on his rookie-era extension window; 4th NFL season, projected to start at safety after a versatile few seasons in sub-packages.
S Jaden HicksWashington State
still on his rookie contract (2024 draft pick). 3rd NFL season; in line for a full-time starting safety role in 2026. A FC WE S T KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Fantasy
Projected fantasy points per game · 2026
Standard 12-team scoring (non-PPR): 1 pt / 25 pass yds, 4 pts pass TD, -2 INT, 1 pt / 10 rush+rec yds, 6 pts TD, -2 fumble lost. Projections are modeled from each player's 2026 positional rank.
| Player | Rank | Proj FPPG | Proj season | Actual FPPG | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 Patrick Mahomes | QB15 | 17.0 | 289 | — | — |
| RB1 Kenneth Walker III | RB13Starter | 14.5 | 247 | — | — |
| WR1 Rashee Rice | WR8Starter | 15.0 | 255 | — | — |
| WR2 Xavier Worthy | outside the top 40 WRs | — | — | — | — |
| TE1 Travis Kelce | TE11Starter | 10.0 | 170 | — | — |
| TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST) Chiefs D/ST | — | — | — | — | — |
Season fantasy tracker
Weekly fantasy scoring for these players appears here once 2026 games go final — each week's points are graded in standard 12-team scoring and rolled into the actual FPPG above.
Environment
- Home games: outdoor stadium — late-season (Dec./Jan.) home dates carry real weather risk for passing-game and kicking volume.
- Road dome/retractable-roof games: ideal weather-neutral spots for maximum fantasy production: Wk 4 (Las Vegas Raiders), Wk 10 (Atlanta Falcons), Wk 13 (Los Angeles Rams).
- 2025 recap: Patrick Mahomes's season ended early with a torn ACL/LCL, capping the whole offense's fantasy relevance; Rashee Rice remained a strong target earner in the games he played.
- 2026 projection: A healthy Mahomes returns to fringe-QB1 territory in Andy Reid's offense. Kenneth Walker III's arrival gives Kansas City a real lead-back option for the first time in years. Rice projects as a strong WR1 target earner if he stays on the field.
- Patrick Mahomes: Pro: elite offensive mind (Reid) and a talented supporting cast if healthy. Con: recovering from a serious knee injury is a real swing factor.
- Kenneth Walker III: Pro: real lead-back role in a scheme that's needed one for years. Con: has to prove durability and touchdown efficiency in a new offense.
- Rashee Rice: Pro: elite target earner when on the field with Mahomes. Con: has to prove he can stay available for a full season. A FC WE S T KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
NOTES
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