BUFFALO BILLS
AFC East•12-5 SU · 8-9 ATS•new Highmark Stadium (heated Kentucky bluegrass)
2026 Just J Football Companion profile
Schedule
Next up · Week 1
at Houston Texans
Sun 9/13 · 1:00 PM
2026 schedule
- Wk 1at Houston TexansSpread —Total —Sun 9/13 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 2vs Detroit LionsSpread —Total —Thu 9/17 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 3vs Los Angeles ChargersSpread —Total —Sun 9/27 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 4vs New England PatriotsSpread —Total —Sun 10/4 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 5at Los Angeles RamsSpread —Total —Mon 10/12 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 6at Las Vegas RaidersSpread —Total —Sun 10/18 · 4:25 PM
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- Wk 7Bye week
- Wk 8vs Baltimore RavensSpread —Total —Sun 11/1 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 9at Minnesota VikingsSpread —Total —Mon 11/9 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 10at New York JetsSpread —Total —Sun 11/15 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 11vs Miami DolphinsSpread —Total —Sun 11/22 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 12vs Kansas City ChiefsSpread —Total —Thu 11/26 · 8:20 PM
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- Wk 13at New England PatriotsSpread —Total —Sun 12/6 · 4:25 PM
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- Wk 14at Green Bay PackersSpread —Total —Sun 12/13 · 8:20 PM
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- Wk 15vs Chicago BearsSpread —Total —Sat 12/19 · 8:20 PM
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- Wk 16at Denver BroncosSpread —Total —Fri 12/25 · 4:30 PM
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- Wk 17at Miami DolphinsSpread —Total —Sun 1/3 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 18vs New York JetsSpread —Total —
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Every game gets a JustJ pick — ATS side and total. Posted numbers are used the moment books hang them; until then the pick is quoted on the JustJ line and refreshes each week.
Schedule & market notes
- Bye: Week 7 — a mid-season bye, giving a roughly even split on either side.
- Short-week / non-Sunday games: 2 Thursday, 2 Monday, 1 Friday, 1 Saturday — short-rest games carry their own well-documented ATS variance, worth flagging on your calendar as they approach.
53-MAN ROSTER
Handicapping
Betting profile — vs. the number
2025 ATS
8-9
47.1% cover rate — 17th of 32
2025 Straight up
12-5
Point differential +116
Scoring environment
49.8
Combined points per game — 7th highest of 32
Home venue
Grass
new Highmark Stadium (heated Kentucky bluegrass)
Points scored / allowed
28.3 per game scored (4th) · 21.5 allowed (12th)
Margin & schedule
Margin of victory +6.8 (5th) · Strength of schedule -2.3
- Home / road: The Bills move into the new Highmark Stadium in 2026 — their first-ever grass field after 53 years on turf, a real adjustment worth watching for a roster built on the old surface.
- Trend: A first-year defensive coordinator (Jim Leonhard) installing a new 3-4 scheme adds real early-season variance to Buffalo's defensive numbers, independent of the offense's continued excellence.
Power ratings — strength against the field
SRS power rating
+4.5
8th of 32 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field
Offensive SRS
+4.9
6th of 32
Defensive SRS
-0.4
17th of 32
Points (margin of victory)
+6.8 · 5th of 32
Against the spread
8-9 (47.1%) · 17th of 32
Totals (combined PPG)
49.8 · 7th of 32
Turnover differential +1 · 2025 results, Just J Football Companion / Pro-Football-Reference.
Power ratings & 2025 results
- 2025 record: 12-5-0 — Points For 481, Points Against 365 (differential +116).
- Margin of Victory: +6.8 pts/game — the average scoring margin across all 2025 games, win or lose.
- Strength of Schedule (SoS): -2.3 — Pro-Football-Reference's SRS-based measure of 2025 opponent quality; positive means a tougher slate than average.
- SRS (power rating): +4.5 — Simple Rating System score, which converts directly to a projected point spread on a neutral field against a leagueaverage team.
- Offensive SRS: +4.9 · Defensive SRS: -0.4 — the SRS power rating split into offensive and defensive components; higher offensive and higher defensive figures are both better.
- Turnover differential: +1 — total takeaways minus giveaways across the 2025 season, one of the more volatile year-to-year metrics and worth weighing against the rest of this profile rather than on its own.
League-wide unit ranks
Offensive Line
6
Defensive Line / Front Seven
14
Rookie Deone Walker impressed (71.5 grade); Bradley Chubb health is the swing factor alongside Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver
Linebackers
29
Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams both posted sub-60 PFF grades in 2025
Defensive Backs / Secondary
—
Lost five of their top seven leaders in coverage snaps from last year's unit
Special Teams
—
Kicker: Tyler Bass
Overall Offense
6
Offensive SRS: +4.9
Overall Defense
17
Defensive SRS: -0.4
Handicapping notes
- Grass: new Highmark Stadium (heated Kentucky bluegrass) — 2025: 12-5 straight-up, 8-9 against the spread.
- The Bills move into the new Highmark Stadium in 2026: their first-ever grass field after 53 years on turf, a real adjustment worth watching for a roster built on the old surface.
- : A first-year defensive coordinator (Jim Leonhard) installing a new 3-4 scheme adds real early-season variance to Buffalo's defensive numbers, independent of the offense's continued excellence.
Pro Bowlers
- Offense: QB Josh Allen (4th selection, reigning MVP), RB James Cook (3rd selection), OT Dion Dawkins (5th selection)
- Defense: LB Terrel Bernard (added as a replacement selection in January 2026; Buffalo had no defensive players on the initial roster).
Coaches
Coaching staff
Head Coach
Joe Brady
1st season
Offensive Coordinator
Pete Carmichael Jr.
1st season
Offensive Line Coach
Pat Meyer
Defensive Coordinator
Jim Leonhard
1st season
Defensive Line Coach
DL room overseen directly by new defensive staff under Leonhard
Offense
Offensive unit ranks
Offensive Line Rank
3/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Key skill players
- QB1Josh Allen(reigning NFL MVP)QB1
- RB1James Cook(led the NFL in rushing yards in 2025)RB6
- WR1DJ Moore(acquired via trade from Chicago this offseason)WR20 range
- WR2Khalil Shakiroutside the top 50 WRs
- TE1Dalton KincaidTE10
- TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST)Bills D/ST
Key Offensive Line
LT Dion DawkinsTemple
extension through 2027; ~$20.2M AAV. 10th NFL season; 5x Pro Bowler and the emotional leader of Buffalo's line.
C Connor McGovernPenn State
4 yr / $52M extension (2026). 8th NFL season; started all 49 games he's played since arriving in Buffalo in 2023 without allowing a sack at guard before sliding to center in 2024.
RT Spencer BrownNorthern Iowa
4 yr extension signed prior to 2025. 6th NFL season; entering his 6th straight year as the starting right tackle.
Defense
Defensive unit ranks
Defensive Line Rank (front seven)
23/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Defensive efficiency
- 5.2 yards allowed per play, 15th of 32.
- 23.9% pressure rate generated (blitzed on 21.8% of dropbacks), 11th of 32.
- 37.3% opponent drive scoring rate — a middle-of-the-pack mark.
- 11.3% opponent drive turnover rate — roughly league-average.
- 78 missed tackles on the season.
Key Defensive Line
DT Ed OliverHouston
veteran anchor of Buffalo's interior; 7th NFL season, a 2019 first-round pick still playing on a prior extension.
Greg Rousseau (Edge/OLB, Miami (FL)) — 4 yr / $80M extension, $54M guaranteed; ~$20M AAV, top-10 money at the position. 5th NFL season; the team's back-to-back sack leader, averaging 7.0 sacks/season since 2022.
Edge/OLB Bradley ChubbNC State
3 yr / $43.5M free-agent signing (2026), $29M guaranteed; ~$14.5M AAV. 8th NFL season; a 2x Pro Bowler now paired with Rousseau in Buffalo's new 3-4 look.
Key Linebackers
ILB Terrel BernardBaylor
4 yr / $50M extension; ~$12.5M AAV, top-5 money at inside linebacker at signing. 5th NFL season; coming off a down 2025 that puts real pressure on a bounce-back in the new scheme.
ILB Dorian WilliamsTulane
still on a prior veteran contract; 5th NFL season. Buffalo's other primary inside linebacker after Matt Milano's release.
ILB Kaleb Elarms-OrrCalifornia
still on his rookie contract (2026 4th-round pick). A real runway for early snaps given uncertainty behind Bernard and Williams.
Key Defensive Backs
CB Christian BenfordVillanova
veteran starter and Buffalo's top cornerback; 4th NFL season, a 2022 6th-round pick who's outplayed his draft slot significantly.
CB Maxwell HairstonKentucky
still on his rookie contract (2025 1st-round pick). Enters his 2nd season as the presumptive starter opposite Benford.
S Damar HamlinPittsburgh
veteran starting safety; 5th NFL season. Continues his return to full-time duty following his on-field cardiac arrest in January 2023. A FC E A ST BUFFALO BILLS
Fantasy
Projected fantasy points per game · 2026
Standard 12-team scoring (non-PPR): 1 pt / 25 pass yds, 4 pts pass TD, -2 INT, 1 pt / 10 rush+rec yds, 6 pts TD, -2 fumble lost. Projections are modeled from each player's 2026 positional rank.
| Player | Rank | Proj FPPG | Proj season | Actual FPPG | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 Josh Allen | QB1Starter | 21.5 | 366 | — | — |
| RB1 James Cook | RB6Starter | 17.4 | 296 | — | — |
| WR1 DJ Moore | WR20 range | — | — | — | — |
| WR2 Khalil Shakir | outside the top 50 WRs | — | — | — | — |
| TE1 Dalton Kincaid | TE10Starter | 10.4 | 177 | — | — |
| TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST) Bills D/ST | — | — | — | — | — |
Season fantasy tracker
Weekly fantasy scoring for these players appears here once 2026 games go final — each week's points are graded in standard 12-team scoring and rolled into the actual FPPG above.
Environment
- Home games: outdoor stadium — late-season (Dec./Jan.) home dates carry real weather risk for passing-game and kicking volume.
- Road dome/retractable-roof games: ideal weather-neutral spots for maximum fantasy production: Wk 1 (Houston Texans), Wk 5 (Los Angeles Rams), Wk 6 (Las Vegas Raiders), Wk 9 (Minnesota Vikings).
- 2025 recap: Josh Allen was the fantasy QB1, James Cook led the NFL in rushing yards and was a strong RB finish, and the passing-game pecking order behind Allen stayed muddled without a true WR1.
- 2026 projection: Allen remains the consensus 2026 fantasy QB1. Cook projects as a high-end RB1 again in a run-heavy offense. DJ Moore's trade addition gives Buffalo a legitimate first read in the passing game for the first time in years, which should also help Kincaid and Shakir find more defined roles.
- Josh Allen: Pro: the clear consensus QB1, elite rushing floor plus big passing upside. Con: touchdown-dependent scoring means some week-toweek volatility even at the top.
- James Cook: Pro: bell-cow volume in an efficient, run-heavy offense. Con: a run-first offense can cap receiving work and touchdown equity in years the passing game clicks.
- DJ Moore: Pro: a legitimate true WR1 target earner for the first time in Buffalo in years. Con: adjusting to a new offense and quarterback carries some real onboarding risk. A FC E A ST BUFFALO BILLS
NOTES
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