ATLANTA FALCONS
NFC South•8-9 SU · 8-8-1 ATS•Mercedes-Benz Stadium
2026 Just J Football Companion profile
Schedule
Next up · Week 1
at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun 9/13 · 1:00 PM
2026 schedule
- Wk 1at Pittsburgh SteelersSpread —Total —Sun 9/13 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 2vs Carolina PanthersSpread —Total —Sun 9/20 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 3at Green Bay PackersSpread —Total —Thu 9/24 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 4at New Orleans SaintsSpread —Total —Mon 10/5 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 5vs Baltimore RavensSpread —Total —Sun 10/11 · 8:20 PM
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- Wk 6vs Chicago BearsSpread —Total —Sun 10/18 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 7vs San Francisco 49ersSpread —Total —Sun 10/25 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 8at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSpread —Total —Sun 11/1 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 9vs Cincinnati Bengals (Madrid)Spread —Total —Sun 11/8 · 9:30 AM
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- Wk 10vs Kansas City ChiefsSpread —Total —Sun 11/15 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 11Bye week
- Wk 12at Minnesota VikingsSpread —Total —Sun 11/29 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 13vs Detroit LionsSpread —Total —Sun 12/6 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 14at Cleveland BrownsSpread —Total —Sun 12/13 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 15at Washington CommandersSpread —Total —Sun 12/20 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 16vs Tampa Bay BuccaneersSpread —Total —
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- Wk 17vs New Orleans SaintsSpread —Total —Sun 1/3 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 18at Carolina PanthersSpread —Total —
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Every game gets a JustJ pick — ATS side and total. Posted numbers are used the moment books hang them; until then the pick is quoted on the JustJ line and refreshes each week.
Schedule & market notes
- Bye: Week 11 — a mid-season bye, giving a roughly even split on either side.
- Short-week / non-Sunday games: 1 Thursday, 1 Monday — short-rest games carry their own well-documented ATS variance, worth flagging on your calendar as they approach.
- International game(s): Week 9 vs Cincinnati Bengals (Madrid) — a true road game with no home-field advantage and real short-week/travel logistics even when technically the “home” team.
53-MAN ROSTER
Handicapping
Betting profile — vs. the number
2025 ATS
8-8-1
50% cover rate — 14th of 32
2025 Straight up
8-9
Point differential -48
Scoring environment
44.4
Combined points per game — 21st highest of 32
Home venue
Turf
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Points scored / allowed
20.8 per game scored (24th) · 23.6 allowed (19th)
Margin & schedule
Margin of victory -2.8 (21st) · Strength of schedule +0.1
- Trend: First-year HC Kevin Stefanski inherits a QB spot settled mostly by circumstance (Tua signed, Penix still working back from a torn ACL) — earlyseason lineup uncertainty.
- Trend: James Pearce Jr.'s 8-game suspension removes Atlanta's most disruptive pass rusher for roughly the first half of the season — a legitimate reason to expect a softer defensive floor early before a potential second-half improvement.
Power ratings — strength against the field
SRS power rating
-2.8
20th of 32 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field
Offensive SRS
-2
23rd of 32
Defensive SRS
-0.7
18th of 32
Points (margin of victory)
-2.8 · 21st of 32
Against the spread
8-8-1 (50%) · 14th of 32
Totals (combined PPG)
44.4 · 21st of 32
Turnover differential +5 · 2025 results, Just J Football Companion / Pro-Football-Reference.
Power ratings & 2025 results
- 2025 record: 8-9-0 — Points For 353, Points Against 401 (differential -48).
- Margin of Victory: -2.8 pts/game — the average scoring margin across all 2025 games, win or lose.
- Strength of Schedule (SoS): +0.1 — Pro-Football-Reference's SRS-based measure of 2025 opponent quality; positive means a tougher slate than average.
- SRS (power rating): -2.8 — Simple Rating System score, which converts directly to a projected point spread on a neutral field against a leagueaverage team.
- Offensive SRS: -2.0 · Defensive SRS: -0.7 — the SRS power rating split into offensive and defensive components; higher offensive and higher defensive figures are both better.
- Turnover differential: +5 — total takeaways minus giveaways across the 2025 season, one of the more volatile year-to-year metrics and worth weighing against the rest of this profile rather than on its own.
League-wide unit ranks
Offensive Line
9
Defensive Line / Front Seven
32
James Pearce Jr. suspended 8 games, Jalon Walker out for season (torn ACL) — severely depleted
Linebackers
21
Divine Deablo emerging (77.7 career-high grade) but losing Kaden Elliss hurts the group
Defensive Backs / Secondary
—
Special Teams
—
Kicker: Parker Romo
Overall Offense
23
Offensive SRS: -2.0
Overall Defense
18
Defensive SRS: -0.7
Handicapping notes
- Turf: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — 2025: 8-9 straight-up, 8-8-1 against the spread.
- : First-year HC Kevin Stefanski inherits a QB spot settled mostly by circumstance (Tua signed, Penix still working back from a torn ACL) — early- season lineup uncertainty.
- : James Pearce Jr.'s 8-game suspension removes Atlanta's most disruptive pass rusher for roughly the first half of the season — a legitimate reason to expect a softer defensive floor early before a potential second-half improvement.
Pro Bowlers
- Offense: RB Bijan Robinson (2nd straight), RG Chris Lindstrom (4th straight)
- Defense: None.
Coaches
Coaching staff
Head Coach
Kevin Stefanski
1st season
Offensive Coordinator
Tommy Rees
1st season
Offensive Line Coach
Bill Callahan
Defensive Coordinator
Jeff Ulbrich
3rd season
Defensive Line Coach
Nate Ollie
Offense
Offensive unit ranks
Offensive Line Rank
10/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Key skill players
- QB1Tua Tagovailoa(free-agent signing; expected Week 1 starter over Michael Penix Jr., who is still working back from a torn ACL)QB32
- RB1Bijan RobinsonRB2
- WR1Drake LondonWR7
- WR2Jahan Dotsonoutside the top 90 WRs
- TE1Kyle PittsTE6
- TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST)Falcons D/ST
Key Offensive Line
RG Chris LindstromBoston College
5 yr / $105M extension; ~$21M AAV, the richest guard contract in NFL history at signing. 8th NFL season; a 2019 first-round pick and 4x Pro Bowler.
LT Jake MatthewsTexas A&M
extension through 2026; ~$22.5M AAV. 13th NFL season; the league's active iron-man at tackle, having missed almost no starts since entering the league in 2014.
RT Jawaan TaylorFlorida
1 yr / $5M free-agent signing (2026), no guaranteed money — a prove-it deal after Kaleb McGary's retirement. 8th NFL season; has started all 111 games of his career, though he's also led the NFL in accepted penalties since entering the league.
Defense
Defensive unit ranks
Defensive Line Rank (front seven)
31/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Defensive efficiency
- 5.3 yards allowed per play, 16th of 32.
- 23.6% pressure rate generated (blitzed on 33.4% of dropbacks), 12th of 32.
- 41.5% opponent drive scoring rate — a below-average mark.
- 11.9% opponent drive turnover rate — roughly league-average.
- 87 missed tackles on the season.
Key Defensive Line
Edge James Pearce Jr.Tennessee
4 yr fully-guaranteed rookie contract (2025 1st-round pick). Set the Falcons' rookie sack record (10.5) and posted the most rookie QB pressures (45) in franchise history — but will serve an 8-game suspension to open the 2026 season, a major early-season swing factor.
DT David OnyemataManitoba
3 yr / $35M free-agent signing (2023). 10th NFL season; has 30 career sacks and 42 tackles for loss across stints with New Orleans and Atlanta.
DT Ruke OrhorhoroClemson
still on his rookie contract (2024 2nd-round pick). Enters his 3rd season as one of the interior anchors the Falcons are counting on to step forward.
Key Linebackers
LB Divine DeabloVirginia Tech
free-agent signing (2025) after four seasons with Las Vegas. 6th NFL season; brings range and coverage ability to a linebacker corps rebuilt after Kaden Elliss departed in free agency.
LB Christian HarrisAlabama
free-agent addition; 5th NFL season after four years in Houston. Has battled injuries at times, making the depth behind him a real training-camp storyline.
LB Kendal DanielsOklahoma State
still on his rookie contract (2026 draft pick). A safety-to-linebacker convert in the mold of Foye Oluokun and Divine Deablo before him under this coaching lineage.
Key Defensive Backs
S Jessie Bates IIIWake Forest
4 yr / $64.02M free-agent signing (2023), $36M guaranteed; ~$16M AAV, the 4th-highest-paid safety in NFL history at signing. 9th NFL season; a Pro Bowler with 21 career interceptions.
CB A.J. Terrell Jr.Clemson
still on his rookie-era extension; Atlanta's longest-tenured defensive player. 7th NFL season; a 2020 first-round pick and former Second-team All-Pro.
S Billy Bowman Jr.Oklahoma
still on his rookie contract (2024 draft pick). Opens 2026 on the PUP list — his health is a real factor for secondary depth. NF C S OU TH ATLANTA FALCONS
Fantasy
Projected fantasy points per game · 2026
Standard 12-team scoring (non-PPR): 1 pt / 25 pass yds, 4 pts pass TD, -2 INT, 1 pt / 10 rush+rec yds, 6 pts TD, -2 fumble lost. Projections are modeled from each player's 2026 positional rank.
| Player | Rank | Proj FPPG | Proj season | Actual FPPG | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 Tua Tagovailoa | QB32 | 11.6 | 197 | — | — |
| RB1 Bijan Robinson | RB2Starter | 19.1 | 325 | — | — |
| WR1 Drake London | WR7Starter | 15.2 | 258 | — | — |
| WR2 Jahan Dotson | outside the top 90 WRs | — | — | — | — |
| TE1 Kyle Pitts | TE6Starter | 11.8 | 201 | — | — |
| TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST) Falcons D/ST | — | — | — | — | — |
Season fantasy tracker
Weekly fantasy scoring for these players appears here once 2026 games go final — each week's points are graded in standard 12-team scoring and rolled into the actual FPPG above.
Environment
- Home games: played under a fixed or retractable roof — every home date is a weather-neutral, full-strength fantasy environment for this offense.
- Road dome/retractable-roof games: ideal weather-neutral spots for maximum fantasy production: Wk 4 (New Orleans Saints), Wk 12 (Minnesota Vikings).
- 2025 recap: Bijan Robinson finished as a top-2 fantasy RB, while the QB situation (Penix's ACL tear, Kirk Cousins's benching) capped the passing game's overall fantasy output.
- 2026 projection: Robinson remains an easy first-round fantasy pick regardless of who plays QB. Tua Tagovailoa arrives as a QB32-range streamer at best. London holds WR1 volume in Atlanta's offense, while Pitts enters a make-or-break year for his long-teased ceiling under a new staff.
- Bijan Robinson: Pro: elite, three-down usage regardless of the QB situation. Con: touchdown regression risk if the passing game struggles to sustain drives.
- Drake London: Pro: clear WR1 target volume in Atlanta's offense. Con: QB uncertainty (Tua vs. a recovering Penix) caps his weekly ceiling.
- Kyle Pitts: Pro: elite draft pedigree and a new coaching staff eager to feature him. Con: has never matched his rookie-year breakout, and newscheme risk is real. NF C S OU TH ATLANTA FALCONS
NOTES
No notes on ATLANTA FALCONS yet.