ATLANTA FALCONS

2026 schedule

• Wk 1PITat Pittsburgh SteelersSpread —Total —Sun 9/13 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 2CARvs Carolina PanthersSpread —Total —Sun 9/20 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 3GBat Green Bay PackersSpread —Total —Thu 9/24 · 8:15 PM
• Wk 4NOat New Orleans SaintsSpread —Total —Mon 10/5 · 8:15 PM
• Wk 5BALvs Baltimore RavensSpread —Total —Sun 10/11 · 8:20 PM
• Wk 6CHIvs Chicago BearsSpread +1.5Total 51.5Sun 10/18 · 1:00 PM
  JustJ pickSpread CHI -1.5 ★★★★★1 out of 5Totals No playJust J Line +2 · Edge Rating 0.5 — No Edge / Pass · DK Total 51.5 · Just J Total 51.5

  Matchup context

  Season to date · ▲▼ vs league avg

  Team	RZ TD%	RZ TD% allow	Expl%	Expl% allow	Sack% allow	Sack% gen	Plays/G
  CHI	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
  ATL	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
  Lg avg	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

  Context only — doesn't change the Just J Total.

  Fire Plays
• Wk 7SFvs San Francisco 49ersSpread —Total —Sun 10/25 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 8TBat Tampa Bay BuccaneersSpread —Total —Sun 11/1 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 9CINvs Cincinnati Bengals (Madrid)Spread —Total —Sun 11/8 · 9:30 AM
• Wk 10KCvs Kansas City ChiefsSpread —Total —Sun 11/15 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 11Bye week
• Wk 12MINat Minnesota VikingsSpread —Total —Sun 11/29 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 13DETvs Detroit LionsSpread —Total —Sun 12/6 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 14CLEat Cleveland BrownsSpread —Total —Sun 12/13 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 15WASat Washington CommandersSpread —Total —Sun 12/20 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 16TBvs Tampa Bay BuccaneersSpread —Total —
• Wk 17NOvs New Orleans SaintsSpread —Total —Sun 1/3 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 18CARat Carolina PanthersSpread —Total —

JustJ picks are only posted for the current week's slate — see the full sheet on the Picks page.

Schedule & market notes

• Bye: Week 11 — a mid-season bye, giving a roughly even split on either side.
• Short-week / non-Sunday games: 1 Thursday, 1 Monday — short-rest games carry their own well-documented ATS variance, worth flagging on your calendar as they approach.
• International game(s): Week 9 vs Cincinnati Bengals (Madrid) — a true road game with no home-field advantage and real short-week/travel logistics even when technically the “home” team.

Power ratings — strength against the field

Turnover differential +5 · 2025 results, Just J Football Companion / Pro-Football-Reference.

Power ratings & 2025 results

• 2025 record: 8-9-0 — Points For 353, Points Against 401 (differential -48).
• Margin of Victory: -2.8 pts/game — the average scoring margin across all 2025 games, win or lose.
• Strength of Schedule (SoS): +0.1 — Pro-Football-Reference's SRS-based measure of 2025 opponent quality; positive means a tougher slate than average.
• SRS (power rating): -2.8 — Simple Rating System score, which converts directly to a projected point spread on a neutral field against a leagueaverage team.
• Offensive SRS: -2.0 · Defensive SRS: -0.7 — the SRS power rating split into offensive and defensive components; higher offensive and higher defensive figures are both better.
• Turnover differential: +5 — total takeaways minus giveaways across the 2025 season, one of the more volatile year-to-year metrics and worth weighing against the rest of this profile rather than on its own.

League-wide unit ranks

Handicapping notes

• Turf: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — 2025: 8-9 straight-up, 8-8-1 against the spread.
• : First-year HC Kevin Stefanski inherits a QB spot settled mostly by circumstance (Tua signed, Penix still working back from a torn ACL) — early- season lineup uncertainty.
• : James Pearce Jr.'s 8-game suspension removes Atlanta's most disruptive pass rusher for roughly the first half of the season — a legitimate reason to expect a softer defensive floor early before a potential second-half improvement.

Pro Bowlers

• Offense: RB Bijan Robinson (2nd straight), RG Chris Lindstrom (4th straight)
• Defense: None.

Coaching staff

• Head Coach

  Kevin Stefanski

  1st season

• Offensive Coordinator

  Tommy Rees

  1st season

• Offensive Line Coach

  Bill Callahan

• Defensive Coordinator

  Jeff Ulbrich

  3rd season

• Defensive Line Coach

  Nate Ollie

Offensive unit ranks

Key skill players

• QB1Tua Tagovailoa(free-agent signing; expected Week 1 starter over Michael Penix Jr., who is still working back from a torn ACL)
• RB1Bijan Robinson
• WR1Drake London
• WR2Jahan Dotson
• TE1Kyle Pitts
• TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST)Falcons D/ST

Defensive unit ranks

Defensive efficiency

• 5.3 yards allowed per play, 16th of 32.
• 23.6% pressure rate generated (blitzed on 33.4% of dropbacks), 12th of 32.
• 41.5% opponent drive scoring rate — a below-average mark.
• 11.9% opponent drive turnover rate — roughly league-average.
• 87 missed tackles on the season.