ARIZONA CARDINALS

2026 schedule

• Wk 1LACat Los Angeles ChargersSpread —Total —Sun 9/13 · 1:25 PM
• Wk 2SEAvs Seattle SeahawksSpread —Total —Sun 9/20 · 1:25 PM
• Wk 3SFat San Francisco 49ersSpread —Total —Sun 9/27 · 1:05 PM
• Wk 4NYGat New York GiantsSpread —Total —Sun 10/4 · 10:00 AM
• Wk 5DETvs Detroit LionsSpread —Total —Sun 10/11 · 1:25 PM
• Wk 6LARat Los Angeles RamsSpread +12.5Total 51.5Sun 10/18 · 1:05 PM
  JustJ pickSpread ARI +12.5 ★★★★★1 out of 5Totals No playJust J Line -11.5 · Edge Rating 1.0 — Lean · DK Total 51.5 · Just J Total 51.5

  Matchup context

  Season to date · ▲▼ vs league avg

  Team	RZ TD%	RZ TD% allow	Expl%	Expl% allow	Sack% allow	Sack% gen	Plays/G
  ARI	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
  LAR	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
  Lg avg	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

  Context only — doesn't change the Just J Total.

  Fire Plays
• Wk 7DENvs Denver BroncosSpread —Total —Sun 10/25 · 1:05 PM
• Wk 8DALat Dallas CowboysSpread —Total —Sun 11/1 · 11:00 AM
• Wk 9SEAat Seattle SeahawksSpread —Total —Sun 11/8 · 2:25 PM
• Wk 10LARvs Los Angeles RamsSpread —Total —Sun 11/15 · 2:05 PM
• Wk 11KCat Kansas City ChiefsSpread —Total —Sun 11/22 · 11:00 AM
• Wk 12WASvs Washington CommandersSpread —Total —Sun 11/29 · 2:25 PM
• Wk 13PHIvs Philadelphia EaglesSpread —Total —Sun 12/6 · 2:05 PM
• Wk 14Bye week
• Wk 15NYJvs New York JetsSpread —Total —Sun 12/20 · 2:05 PM
• Wk 16NOat New Orleans SaintsSpread —Total —Sun 12/27 · 11:00 AM
• Wk 17LVvs Las Vegas RaidersSpread —Total —Sun 1/3 · 2:05 PM
• Wk 18SFvs San Francisco 49ersSpread —Total —

JustJ picks are only posted for the current week's slate — see the full sheet on the Picks page.

Schedule & market notes

• 2026 win total: 3.5 (BetMGM: Over -145 / Under +120) — the lowest win total in the NFL entering the season, with DraftKings' number moving from Under 4.5 (-150) to 3.5 (juice on the Over) after the division-rival Rams traded for Myles Garrett.
• Futures (DraftKings/FanDuel): NFC West +10000, NFC #1 seed +25000, to make the NFC Divisional Round +3500, Super Bowl LXI +100000 — Arizona's longest division, conference, and Super Bowl odds since the 2017 New York Jets, per ESPN.
• 2025 ATS collapse for context: Arizona lost its final 9 games of last season, covering the spread just once in that stretch, losing by 15.8 points per game and missing the cover by 9.0 points per game on average — exactly the kind of late-season fade a bettor should watch for again if the season goes sideways.
• Bye: Week 14 — a late bye — a long front half of the season before any scheduled rest.
• No Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Monday games on the slate — a full schedule of standard Sunday rest, which removes short-week variance as a factor this season.

Power ratings — strength against the field

Turnover differential -2 · 2025 results, Just J Football Companion / Pro-Football-Reference.

Power ratings & 2025 results

• 2025 record: 3-14-0 — Points For 355, Points Against 488 (differential -133).
• Margin of Victory: -7.8 pts/game — the average scoring margin across all 2025 games, win or lose.
• Strength of Schedule (SoS): +3.4 — Pro-Football-Reference's SRS-based measure of 2025 opponent quality; positive means a tougher slate than average.
• SRS (power rating): -4.4 — Simple Rating System score, which converts directly to a projected point spread on a neutral field against a leagueaverage team.
• Offensive SRS: -1.0 · Defensive SRS: -3.4 — the SRS power rating split into offensive and defensive components; higher offensive and higher defensive figures are both better.
• Turnover differential: -2 — total takeaways minus giveaways across the 2025 season, one of the more volatile year-to-year metrics and worth weighing against the rest of this profile rather than on its own.

League-wide unit ranks

Handicapping notes

• Grass: State Farm Stadium — 2025: 3-14 straight-up, 6-11 against the spread.
• : Kyler Murray was traded to Minnesota; Jacoby Brissett steps in amid a contract holdout situation — real early-season QB uncertainty.
• Home ATS, 2019–2023 (5-season span): 12-29-1 straight-up, 18-24 against the spread at State Farm Stadium — a persistently poor home team by both measures over that stretch, per ATS Stats' team database. More recent (2024–2025) home splits were not independently verified for this edition and should be confirmed closer to kickoff.
• Totals, 2019–2023 home games: 27-15 to the Over (64.3%) — a real, sourced trend clearing the 60% threshold; worth tracking whether an improved 2026 roster keeps pace with that Over lean or reverses it.

Pro Bowlers

• Offense: None — no Cardinals offensive player made the 2025-season Pro Bowl.
• Defense: None.

Coaching staff

• Head Coach

  Mike LaFleur

  1st season as HC; 12th year in NFL coaching

• Offensive Coordinator

  Nathaniel Hackett

  1st season with Arizona; ~20th year in NFL coaching; LaFleur is play-caller

• Offensive Line Coach

  Justin Frye

  returning; 2nd season with Arizona

• Defensive Coordinator

  Nick Rallis

  4th season with Arizona

• Defensive Line Coach

  Pete Kwiatkowski

  returning; 2nd season with Arizona

What it means

• LaFleur is a first-time NFL head coach after 12 years as an assistant — zero games as lead decision-maker is a real early-season variable.
• Hackett's 2022 Denver HC stint ended after one season amid criticized clock management; Rallis's defense allowed the NFL's 6th-most yards in 2025.

Offensive unit ranks

Key skill players

• QB1Jacoby Brissett(replaced Kyler Murray, traded to Minnesota)
• RB1Jeremiyah Love(No. 3 overall pick, 2026)
• WR1Marvin Harrison Jr.
• WR2Michael Wilson
• TE1Trey McBride
• TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST)Cardinals D/ST

Defensive unit ranks

Defensive efficiency

• 5.6 yards allowed per play, 23th of 32.
• 18.2% pressure rate generated (blitzed on 24.1% of dropbacks), 29th of 32.
• 48.9% opponent drive scoring rate — one of the worst scoring defenses in the league by this measure.
• 10.0% opponent drive turnover rate — roughly league-average.
• 115 missed tackles on the season.