ARIZONA CARDINALS
NFC West•3-14 SU · 6-11 ATS•State Farm Stadium
2026 Just J Football Companion profile
Schedule
Next up · Week 1
at Los Angeles Chargers
Sun 9/13 · 1:25 PM
2026 schedule
- Wk 1at Los Angeles ChargersSpread —Total —Sun 9/13 · 1:25 PM
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- Wk 2vs Seattle SeahawksSpread —Total —Sun 9/20 · 1:25 PM
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- Wk 3at San Francisco 49ersSpread —Total —Sun 9/27 · 1:05 PM
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- Wk 4at New York GiantsSpread —Total —Sun 10/4 · 10:00 AM
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- Wk 5vs Detroit LionsSpread —Total —Sun 10/11 · 1:25 PM
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- Wk 6at Los Angeles RamsSpread —Total —Sun 10/18 · 1:05 PM
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- Wk 7vs Denver BroncosSpread —Total —Sun 10/25 · 1:05 PM
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- Wk 8at Dallas CowboysSpread —Total —Sun 11/1 · 11:00 AM
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- Wk 9at Seattle SeahawksSpread —Total —Sun 11/8 · 2:25 PM
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- Wk 10vs Los Angeles RamsSpread —Total —Sun 11/15 · 2:05 PM
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- Wk 11at Kansas City ChiefsSpread —Total —Sun 11/22 · 11:00 AM
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- Wk 12vs Washington CommandersSpread —Total —Sun 11/29 · 2:25 PM
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- Wk 13vs Philadelphia EaglesSpread —Total —Sun 12/6 · 2:05 PM
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- Wk 14Bye week
- Wk 15vs New York JetsSpread —Total —Sun 12/20 · 2:05 PM
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- Wk 16at New Orleans SaintsSpread —Total —Sun 12/27 · 11:00 AM
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- Wk 17vs Las Vegas RaidersSpread —Total —Sun 1/3 · 2:05 PM
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- Wk 18vs San Francisco 49ersSpread —Total —
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Every game gets a JustJ pick — ATS side and total. Posted numbers are used the moment books hang them; until then the pick is quoted on the JustJ line and refreshes each week.
Schedule & market notes
- 2026 win total: 3.5 (BetMGM: Over -145 / Under +120) — the lowest win total in the NFL entering the season, with DraftKings' number moving from Under 4.5 (-150) to 3.5 (juice on the Over) after the division-rival Rams traded for Myles Garrett.
- Futures (DraftKings/FanDuel): NFC West +10000, NFC #1 seed +25000, to make the NFC Divisional Round +3500, Super Bowl LXI +100000 — Arizona's longest division, conference, and Super Bowl odds since the 2017 New York Jets, per ESPN.
- 2025 ATS collapse for context: Arizona lost its final 9 games of last season, covering the spread just once in that stretch, losing by 15.8 points per game and missing the cover by 9.0 points per game on average — exactly the kind of late-season fade a bettor should watch for again if the season goes sideways.
- Bye: Week 14 — a late bye — a long front half of the season before any scheduled rest.
- No Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Monday games on the slate — a full schedule of standard Sunday rest, which removes short-week variance as a factor this season.
53-MAN ROSTER
Handicapping
Betting profile — vs. the number
2025 ATS
6-11
35.3% cover rate — 29th of 32
2025 Straight up
3-14
Point differential -133
Scoring environment
49.6
Combined points per game — 8th highest of 32
Home venue
Grass
State Farm Stadium
Points scored / allowed
20.9 per game scored (22nd) · 28.7 allowed (29th)
Margin & schedule
Margin of victory -7.8 (29th) · Strength of schedule +3.4
- Home / road: Home ATS, 2019–2023 (5-season span): 12-29-1 straight-up, 18-24 against the spread at State Farm Stadium — a persistently poor home team by both measures over that stretch, per ATS Stats' team database. More recent (2024–2025) home splits were not independently verified for this edition and should be confirmed closer to kickoff.
- Home / road: Totals, 2019–2023 home games: 27-15 to the Over (64.3%) — a real, sourced trend clearing the 60% threshold; worth tracking whether an improved 2026 roster keeps pace with that Over lean or reverses it.
- Trend: Kyler Murray was traded to Minnesota; Jacoby Brissett steps in amid a contract holdout situation — real early-season QB uncertainty.
- 2026 win total: 2026 win total: 3.5 (BetMGM: Over -145 / Under +120) — the lowest win total in the NFL entering the season, with DraftKings' number moving from Under 4.5 (-150) to 3.5 (juice on the Over) after the division-rival Rams traded for Myles Garrett.
Power ratings — strength against the field
SRS power rating
-4.4
24th of 32 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field
Offensive SRS
-1
19th of 32
Defensive SRS
-3.4
27th of 32
Points (margin of victory)
-7.8 · 29th of 32
Against the spread
6-11 (35.3%) · 29th of 32
Totals (combined PPG)
49.6 · 8th of 32
Turnover differential -2 · 2025 results, Just J Football Companion / Pro-Football-Reference.
Power ratings & 2025 results
- 2025 record: 3-14-0 — Points For 355, Points Against 488 (differential -133).
- Margin of Victory: -7.8 pts/game — the average scoring margin across all 2025 games, win or lose.
- Strength of Schedule (SoS): +3.4 — Pro-Football-Reference's SRS-based measure of 2025 opponent quality; positive means a tougher slate than average.
- SRS (power rating): -4.4 — Simple Rating System score, which converts directly to a projected point spread on a neutral field against a leagueaverage team.
- Offensive SRS: -1.0 · Defensive SRS: -3.4 — the SRS power rating split into offensive and defensive components; higher offensive and higher defensive figures are both better.
- Turnover differential: -2 — total takeaways minus giveaways across the 2025 season, one of the more volatile year-to-year metrics and worth weighing against the rest of this profile rather than on its own.
League-wide unit ranks
Offensive Line
22
Defensive Line / Front Seven
31
Josh Sweat/Zaven Collins solid edge pairing (78 combined pressures); interior a major concern
Linebackers
30
Mack Wilson and Cody Simon both missed 16%+ of tackles in a tough 2025
Defensive Backs / Secondary
—
Struggled badly in 2025; every starter allowed a completion percentage above 60%; rookies Will Johnson and Denzel Burke need a Year 2 leap
Special Teams
—
Kicker: Chad Ryland
Overall Offense
19
Offensive SRS: -1.0
Overall Defense
27
Defensive SRS: -3.4
Handicapping notes
- Grass: State Farm Stadium — 2025: 3-14 straight-up, 6-11 against the spread.
- : Kyler Murray was traded to Minnesota; Jacoby Brissett steps in amid a contract holdout situation — real early-season QB uncertainty.
- Home ATS, 2019–2023 (5-season span): 12-29-1 straight-up, 18-24 against the spread at State Farm Stadium — a persistently poor home team by both measures over that stretch, per ATS Stats' team database. More recent (2024–2025) home splits were not independently verified for this edition and should be confirmed closer to kickoff.
- Totals, 2019–2023 home games: 27-15 to the Over (64.3%) — a real, sourced trend clearing the 60% threshold; worth tracking whether an improved 2026 roster keeps pace with that Over lean or reverses it.
Pro Bowlers
- Offense: None — no Cardinals offensive player made the 2025-season Pro Bowl.
- Defense: None.
Coaches
Coaching staff
Head Coach
Mike LaFleur
1st season as HC; 12th year in NFL coaching
Offensive Coordinator
Nathaniel Hackett
1st season with Arizona; ~20th year in NFL coaching; LaFleur is play-caller
Offensive Line Coach
Justin Frye
returning; 2nd season with Arizona
Defensive Coordinator
Nick Rallis
4th season with Arizona
Defensive Line Coach
Pete Kwiatkowski
returning; 2nd season with Arizona
What it means
- LaFleur is a first-time NFL head coach after 12 years as an assistant — zero games as lead decision-maker is a real early-season variable.
- Hackett's 2022 Denver HC stint ended after one season amid criticized clock management; Rallis's defense allowed the NFL's 6th-most yards in 2025.
Offense
Offensive unit ranks
Offensive Line Rank
26/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Key skill players
- QB1Jacoby Brissett(replaced Kyler Murray, traded to Minnesota)QB30
- RB1Jeremiyah Love(No. 3 overall pick, 2026)RB14
- WR1Marvin Harrison Jr.WR32
- WR2Michael WilsonWR34
- TE1Trey McBrideTE1
- TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST)Cardinals D/ST
Key Offensive Line
LT Paris Johnson Jr.Ohio State
still on his rookie contract (fifth-year option exercised, ~$8.9M cap hit in 2026); entering his 4th NFL season after starting all 17 games as a rookie in 2023. Extension talks ongoing.
LG Isaac SeumaloOregon State
3 yr / $31.5M free-agent signing (2026); ~$10.5M AAV. 9th NFL season; started for Philadelphia's NFC Championship teams before joining Arizona.
RT Jonah WilliamsAlabama
2 yr / $30M free-agent signing (2024), $19M guaranteed; ~$15M AAV. 7th NFL season; a 2019 first-round pick who started 59 games at Cincinnati before moving to Arizona and sliding to right tackle.
Defense
Defensive unit ranks
Defensive Line Rank (front seven)
29/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason ✦ LaFleur is a first-time NFL head coach after 12 years as an assistant — zero games as lead decision-maker is a real early-season variable. ✦ Hackett's 2022 Denver HC stint ended after one season amid criticized clock management; Rallis's defense allowed the NFL's 6th-most yards in 2025.
Defensive efficiency
- 5.6 yards allowed per play, 23th of 32.
- 18.2% pressure rate generated (blitzed on 24.1% of dropbacks), 29th of 32.
- 48.9% opponent drive scoring rate — one of the worst scoring defenses in the league by this measure.
- 10.0% opponent drive turnover rate — roughly league-average.
- 115 missed tackles on the season.
Key Defensive Line
Edge Josh SweatFlorida State
4 yr / $76.4M free-agent signing (2025), $41M guaranteed; ~$19.1M AAV. 8th NFL season; arrives off a Super Bowl-winning year in Philadelphia.
DT Walter NolenOle Miss
still on his rookie contract (2025 1st-round pick). Limited to 6 games as a rookie but flashed as a pass rusher (2 sacks, 16.3% pressure rate) — a name to watch for a Year 2 leap.
DT/DE Darius RobinsonMissouri
still on his rookie contract (2024 1st-round pick). Also limited to 6 games as a rookie and struggled across 507 snaps (90th percentile in run-stop rate); a clear swing factor for whether Arizona's front improves.
Key Linebackers
MLB Mack Wilson Sr.Alabama
re-signed as a free agent; entering his 8th NFL season and his first as a full-time three-down starter after missing most of 2025 with injury. Posted 75 tackles in 16 games back in 2024, allowing just a 79.7 opposing QB rating in coverage over his two years in Arizona.
OLB/Edge Zaven CollinsTulsa
2 yr / $14M extension, $11.25M guaranteed; ~$7M AAV. 6th NFL season; a 2021 first-round pick (No. 16 overall) who posted a career-high 100 tackles in 2022 and 3.5 sacks in 2024.
ILB Cody SimonOhio State
still on his rookie contract (2025 4th-round pick). Played 564 defensive snaps as a rookie; in the mix to start alongside Wilson in Arizona's base defense.
Key Defensive Backs
S Budda BakerWashington
the longest-tenured cornerstone of Arizona's defense; a 2017 2nd-round pick now in his 10th NFL season and a multiple-time Pro Bowler, having led the team (and often the NFL) in tackles in five of the last six seasons.
CB Will JohnsonMichigan
still on his rookie contract (2025 2nd-round pick). Led the Cardinals with 3 interceptions and 11 passes defensed as a rookie over 12 games — the presumptive CB1 entering 2026.
CB Garrett WilliamsSyracuse
still on his rookie-scale contract (2023 3rd-round pick). Missed all of 2025 recovering from a torn Achilles suffered in the offseason; his Week 1 availability is a real swing factor for the secondary. NF C WE ST ARIZONA CARDINALS
Fantasy
Projected fantasy points per game · 2026
Standard 12-team scoring (non-PPR): 1 pt / 25 pass yds, 4 pts pass TD, -2 INT, 1 pt / 10 rush+rec yds, 6 pts TD, -2 fumble lost. Projections are modeled from each player's 2026 positional rank.
| Player | Rank | Proj FPPG | Proj season | Actual FPPG | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 Jacoby Brissett | QB30 | 12.2 | 207 | — | — |
| RB1 Jeremiyah Love | RB14Starter | 14.0 | 238 | — | — |
| WR1 Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR32Starter | 9.7 | 165 | — | — |
| WR2 Michael Wilson | WR34Starter | 9.2 | 156 | — | — |
| TE1 Trey McBride | TE1Starter | 13.5 | 230 | — | — |
| TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST) Cardinals D/ST | — | — | — | — | — |
Season fantasy tracker
Weekly fantasy scoring for these players appears here once 2026 games go final — each week's points are graded in standard 12-team scoring and rolled into the actual FPPG above.
Environment
- Home games: played under a fixed or retractable roof — every home date is a weather-neutral, full-strength fantasy environment for this offense.
- Road dome/retractable-roof games: ideal weather-neutral spots for maximum fantasy production: Wk 1 (Los Angeles Chargers), Wk 6 (Los Angeles Rams), Wk 8 (Dallas Cowboys), Wk 16 (New Orleans Saints).
- 2025 recap: Jacoby Brissett was a top-10 fantasy QB by total scoring over his 12-game starting stretch, Trey McBride finished as the outright TE1 by more than 80 points over the field (11 TDs, 10 with Brissett throwing), and Michael Wilson was one of the more productive fantasy WRs down the stretch while Harrison Jr. battled injuries.
- 2026 projection: McBride is drafted as an early 2nd-rounder and is a legitimate repeat TE1 candidate, even if some target regression from his 169target workload is likely. Love is being valued as a potential top rookie fantasy scorer at any position. Harrison Jr. remains the nominal WR1 if healthy but carries real risk given how much of Wilson's 2025 production overlapped with Harrison's injury absences — a committee outcome between the two is plausible.
- Trey McBride: Pro: elite target volume in a offense that trails often and throws a lot; the clearest 2026 Cardinals fantasy asset. Con: touchdown regression is possible after an unsustainable 11-score pace, and a new offensive system introduces some uncertainty.
- Jeremiyah Love: Pro: a true No. 3 overall pick with a featured-role path in a run-balanced new offense. Con: rookie-RB risk is real, and touches could be capped early by veteran James Conner if healthy.
- Marvin Harrison Jr.: Pro: still the highest-pedigree receiver on the roster with WR1 target volume if he stays healthy. Con: an ADP in the 30s reflects real skepticism after an injury-marred 2025, and Wilson is real competition for looks.
- Jacoby Brissett: Pro: high pass volume on a team that trails often makes him a viable streaming option in shootout-prone weeks. Con: a low-cost bridge starter facing real competition for the job if he struggles, capping his floor. NF C WE ST ARIZONA CARDINALS
NOTES
No notes on ARIZONA CARDINALS yet.