NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
AFC East•14-3 SU · 11-6 ATS•Gillette Stadium
2026 Just J Football Companion profile
Schedule
Next up · Week 1
at Seattle Seahawks
Wed 9/9 · 8:20 PM
2026 schedule
- Wk 1at Seattle SeahawksSpread —Total —Wed 9/9 · 8:20 PM
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- Wk 2vs Pittsburgh SteelersSpread —Total —Sun 9/20 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 3at Jacksonville JaguarsSpread —Total —Sun 9/27 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 4at Buffalo BillsSpread —Total —Sun 10/4 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 5vs Las Vegas RaidersSpread —Total —Sun 10/11 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 6vs New York JetsSpread —Total —Sun 10/18 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 7at Chicago BearsSpread —Total —Thu 10/22 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 8at Miami DolphinsSpread —Total —Sun 11/1 · 4:25 PM
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- Wk 9vs Green Bay PackersSpread —Total —Sun 11/8 · 4:25 PM
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- Wk 10at Detroit Lions (Munich)Spread —Total —Sun 11/15 · 9:30 AM
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- Wk 11Bye week
- Wk 12at Los Angeles ChargersSpread —Total —Sun 11/29 · 8:20 PM
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- Wk 13vs Buffalo BillsSpread —Total —Sun 12/6 · 4:25 PM
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- Wk 14vs Minnesota VikingsSpread —Total —Thu 12/10 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 15at Kansas City ChiefsSpread —Total —Mon 12/21 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 16at New York JetsSpread —Total —Sun 12/27 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 17vs Denver BroncosSpread —Total —
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- Wk 18vs Miami DolphinsSpread —Total —
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Every game gets a JustJ pick — ATS side and total. Posted numbers are used the moment books hang them; until then the pick is quoted on the JustJ line and refreshes each week.
Schedule & market notes
- Bye: Week 11 — a mid-season bye, giving a roughly even split on either side.
- Short-week / non-Sunday games: 2 Thursday, 1 Monday — short-rest games carry their own well-documented ATS variance, worth flagging on your calendar as they approach.
- International game(s): Week 10 at Detroit Lions (Munich) — a true road game with no home-field advantage and real short-week/travel logistics even when technically the “home” team.
53-MAN ROSTER
Handicapping
Betting profile — vs. the number
2025 ATS
11-6
64.7% cover rate — 4th of 32
2025 Straight up
14-3
Point differential +170
Scoring environment
47.6
Combined points per game — 12th highest of 32
Home venue
Turf
Gillette Stadium
Points scored / allowed
28.8 per game scored (2nd) · 18.8 allowed (4th)
Margin & schedule
Margin of victory +10 (3rd) · Strength of schedule -4.5
- Trend: Drake Maye's sophomore leap plus a loaded defensive front makes New England one of the best straight-up and ATS teams in football entering
Power ratings — strength against the field
SRS power rating
+5.5
6th of 32 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field
Offensive SRS
+3.7
8th of 32
Defensive SRS
+1.8
11th of 32
Points (margin of victory)
+10 · 3rd of 32
Against the spread
11-6 (64.7%) · 4th of 32
Totals (combined PPG)
47.6 · 12th of 32
Turnover differential +3 · 2025 results, Just J Football Companion / Pro-Football-Reference.
Power ratings & 2025 results
- 2025 record: 14-3-0 — Points For 490, Points Against 320 (differential +170).
- Margin of Victory: +10.0 pts/game — the average scoring margin across all 2025 games, win or lose.
- Strength of Schedule (SoS): -4.5 — Pro-Football-Reference's SRS-based measure of 2025 opponent quality; positive means a tougher slate than average.
- SRS (power rating): +5.5 — Simple Rating System score, which converts directly to a projected point spread on a neutral field against a leagueaverage team.
- Offensive SRS: +3.7 · Defensive SRS: +1.8 — the SRS power rating split into offensive and defensive components; higher offensive and higher defensive figures are both better.
- Turnover differential: +3 — total takeaways minus giveaways across the 2025 season, one of the more volatile year-to-year metrics and worth weighing against the rest of this profile rather than on its own.
League-wide unit ranks
Offensive Line
13
Defensive Line / Front Seven
16
Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Cory Durden strong interior; added Dre'Mont Jones, awaiting Harold Landry from PUP
Linebackers
22
Robert Spillane elite against the run (84+ grade 3 straight years) but limited in coverage
Defensive Backs / Secondary
1
Talent at every spot, from Christian Gonzalez to Kevin Byard
Special Teams
—
Kicker: Andy Borregales
Overall Offense
8
Offensive SRS: +3.7
Overall Defense
11
Defensive SRS: +1.8
Handicapping notes
- Turf: Gillette Stadium — 2025: 14-3 straight-up, 11-6 against the spread.
- : Drake Maye's sophomore leap plus a loaded defensive front makes New England one of the best straight-up and ATS teams in football entering 2026.
- : New England enters the season as the reigning Super Bowl LX champion with its core mostly intact — a rare case of a title team returning largely as-is into its title defense.
Pro Bowlers
- Offense: QB Drake Maye (2nd straight selection)
- Defense: CB Christian Gonzalez (1st career selection)
Coaches
Coaching staff
Head Coach
Mike Vrabel
2nd season
Offensive Coordinator
Josh McDaniels
2nd season, this stint
Offensive Line Coach
Doug Marrone
Defensive Coordinator
Zak Kuhr
1st season as full-time DC
Defensive Line Coach
Jason Houghtaling
Offense
Offensive unit ranks
Offensive Line Rank
15/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Key skill players
- QB1Drake Maye(2025 NFL MVP runner-up, Pro Bowler)QB4
- RB1Rhamondre Stevensonoutside the top 30 RBs
- WR1A.J. Brown(acquired via trade from Philadelphia this offseason)WR10
- WR2Romeo Doubs(free-agent addition from Green Bay)outside the top 60 WRs
- TE1Hunter HenryTE18
- TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST)Patriots D/ST
Key Offensive Line
LT Will CampbellLSU
4 yr / $43.66M rookie contract, fully guaranteed (2025 1st-round pick). 2nd NFL season; drafted specifically to become Drake Maye's long-term blindside protector.
LG Alijah Vera-TuckerUSC
free-agent signing (2026) from the Jets. 6th NFL season; brought in to solidify the left side of a retooled interior line.
RG Mike OnwenuMichigan
veteran returning starter; 6th NFL season, one of the most versatile linemen on the roster, capable of playing guard or tackle.
Defense
Defensive unit ranks
Defensive Line Rank (front seven)
11/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Defensive efficiency
- 5.2 yards allowed per play, 12th of 32.
- 20.3% pressure rate generated (blitzed on 25.9% of dropbacks), 24th of 32.
- 32.2% opponent drive scoring rate — an above-average mark.
- 10.5% opponent drive turnover rate — roughly league-average.
- 71 missed tackles on the season.
Key Defensive Line
DT Christian BarmoreAlabama
core returning starter on the interior line; 5th NFL season, 168 career tackles and 15.5 sacks, part of what Vrabel calls one of the league's most talented interior duos alongside Williams.
DT Milton WilliamsLouisiana Tech
4 yr / $104M free-agent signing (2025), $63M guaranteed; ~$26M AAV, the franchise's highest-paid player ever by AAV. 6th NFL season; a Super Bowl LIX champion with Philadelphia before signing with New England.
Edge Harold Landry IIIBoston College
reunited with Vrabel after flourishing under him in Tennessee; 9th NFL season, led the team in sacks in 2025 and is working back from a knee injury with a full offseason to recover.
Key Linebackers
ILB Robert SpillaneWestern Michigan
returning starter and defensive captain; 8th NFL season, an undrafted free agent turned one of the league's more productive linebackers, back after avoiding offseason surgery on a nagging ankle injury.
ILB Christian EllissIdaho
returning starter alongside Spillane; 5th NFL season, part of a linebacker corps Vrabel has built around veteran experience and instincts.
LB Chad MumaWyoming
in the mix for depth snaps behind the starting duo; 4th NFL season, has taken hold of a rotational role in training camp.
Key Defensive Backs
CB Christian GonzalezOregon
fifth-year option exercised, extension talks ongoing; a 2025 Pro Bowler and one of the league's best young cornerbacks. 4th NFL season; the centerpiece of New England's secondary.
CB Carlton Davis IIIAuburn
veteran returning starter opposite Gonzalez; 8th NFL season, forming what the team hopes is an imposing cornerback tandem.
S Kevin Byard IIIMiddle Tennessee State
veteran free-agent addition; 11th NFL season, led the NFL with 7 interceptions in 2025 and brings veteran leadership to a young secondary. A FC E A ST NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Fantasy
Projected fantasy points per game · 2026
Standard 12-team scoring (non-PPR): 1 pt / 25 pass yds, 4 pts pass TD, -2 INT, 1 pt / 10 rush+rec yds, 6 pts TD, -2 fumble lost. Projections are modeled from each player's 2026 positional rank.
| Player | Rank | Proj FPPG | Proj season | Actual FPPG | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 Drake Maye | QB4Starter | 20.5 | 349 | — | — |
| RB1 Rhamondre Stevenson | outside the top 30 RBs | — | — | — | — |
| WR1 A.J. Brown | WR10Starter | 14.5 | 247 | — | — |
| WR2 Romeo Doubs | outside the top 60 WRs | — | — | — | — |
| TE1 Hunter Henry | TE18 | 7.6 | 129 | — | — |
| TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST) Patriots D/ST | — | — | — | — | — |
Season fantasy tracker
Weekly fantasy scoring for these players appears here once 2026 games go final — each week's points are graded in standard 12-team scoring and rolled into the actual FPPG above.
Environment
- Home games: outdoor stadium — late-season (Dec./Jan.) home dates carry real weather risk for passing-game and kicking volume.
- Road dome/retractable-roof games: ideal weather-neutral spots for maximum fantasy production: Wk 10 (Detroit Lions (Munich)), Wk 12 (Los Angeles Chargers).
- 2025 recap: Drake Maye broke out as a top-4 fantasy QB, and the A.J. Brown trade addition (mid-2026) instantly gave him the true WR1 he'd lacked.
- 2026 projection: Maye enters as a locked-in top-5 fantasy QB with A.J. Brown now a full season in the fold. Brown himself projects as a strong WR1/2 in a rapidly ascending offense. The backfield (Stevenson) remains the weak link fantasy-wise in an increasingly pass-driven attack.
- Drake Maye: Pro: elite arm talent plus a true WR1 in Brown now for a full season. Con: still building a full track record as a franchise passer.
- A.J. Brown: Pro: elite target earner reunited with a rising young QB. Con: has had injury-plagued stretches in recent seasons.
- Patriots D/ST: Pro: a top-10-ranked fantasy defense on a rising team. Con: minimal — a solid streaming or roster option most weeks. A FC E A ST NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
NOTES
No notes on NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS yet.