NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

2026 schedule

• Wk 1SEAat Seattle SeahawksSpread —Total —Wed 9/9 · 8:20 PM
• Wk 2PITvs Pittsburgh SteelersSpread —Total —Sun 9/20 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 3JAXat Jacksonville JaguarsSpread —Total —Sun 9/27 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 4BUFat Buffalo BillsSpread —Total —Sun 10/4 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 5LVvs Las Vegas RaidersSpread —Total —Sun 10/11 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 6NYJvs New York JetsSpread -7.5Total 43.5Sun 10/18 · 1:00 PM
  JustJ pickSpread NYJ +7.5 ★★★★★2 out of 5Totals Lean OVERJust J Line -5.5 · Edge Rating 2.0 — Lean · DK Total 43.5 · Just J Total 45 · Signals Bounce-back Over: both teams' games well under the number

  Matchup context

  Season to date · ▲▼ vs league avg

  Team	RZ TD%	RZ TD% allow	Expl%	Expl% allow	Sack% allow	Sack% gen	Plays/G
  NYJ	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
  NE	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
  Lg avg	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

  Context only — doesn't change the Just J Total.

  Fire Plays
• Wk 7CHIat Chicago BearsSpread —Total —Thu 10/22 · 8:15 PM
• Wk 8MIAat Miami DolphinsSpread —Total —Sun 11/1 · 4:25 PM
• Wk 9GBvs Green Bay PackersSpread —Total —Sun 11/8 · 4:25 PM
• Wk 10DETat Detroit Lions (Munich)Spread —Total —Sun 11/15 · 9:30 AM
• Wk 11Bye week
• Wk 12LACat Los Angeles ChargersSpread —Total —Sun 11/29 · 8:20 PM
• Wk 13BUFvs Buffalo BillsSpread —Total —Sun 12/6 · 4:25 PM
• Wk 14MINvs Minnesota VikingsSpread —Total —Thu 12/10 · 8:15 PM
• Wk 15KCat Kansas City ChiefsSpread —Total —Mon 12/21 · 8:15 PM
• Wk 16NYJat New York JetsSpread —Total —Sun 12/27 · 1:00 PM
• Wk 17DENvs Denver BroncosSpread —Total —
• Wk 18MIAvs Miami DolphinsSpread —Total —

JustJ picks are only posted for the current week's slate — see the full sheet on the Picks page.

Schedule & market notes

• Bye: Week 11 — a mid-season bye, giving a roughly even split on either side.
• Short-week / non-Sunday games: 2 Thursday, 1 Monday — short-rest games carry their own well-documented ATS variance, worth flagging on your calendar as they approach.
• International game(s): Week 10 at Detroit Lions (Munich) — a true road game with no home-field advantage and real short-week/travel logistics even when technically the “home” team.

Power ratings — strength against the field

Turnover differential +3 · 2025 results, Just J Football Companion / Pro-Football-Reference.

Power ratings & 2025 results

• 2025 record: 14-3-0 — Points For 490, Points Against 320 (differential +170).
• Margin of Victory: +10.0 pts/game — the average scoring margin across all 2025 games, win or lose.
• Strength of Schedule (SoS): -4.5 — Pro-Football-Reference's SRS-based measure of 2025 opponent quality; positive means a tougher slate than average.
• SRS (power rating): +5.5 — Simple Rating System score, which converts directly to a projected point spread on a neutral field against a leagueaverage team.
• Offensive SRS: +3.7 · Defensive SRS: +1.8 — the SRS power rating split into offensive and defensive components; higher offensive and higher defensive figures are both better.
• Turnover differential: +3 — total takeaways minus giveaways across the 2025 season, one of the more volatile year-to-year metrics and worth weighing against the rest of this profile rather than on its own.

League-wide unit ranks

Handicapping notes

• Turf: Gillette Stadium — 2025: 14-3 straight-up, 11-6 against the spread.
• : Drake Maye's sophomore leap plus a loaded defensive front makes New England one of the best straight-up and ATS teams in football entering 2026.
• : New England enters the season as the reigning Super Bowl LX champion with its core mostly intact — a rare case of a title team returning largely as-is into its title defense.

Pro Bowlers

• Offense: QB Drake Maye (2nd straight selection)
• Defense: CB Christian Gonzalez (1st career selection)

Coaching staff

• Head Coach

  Mike Vrabel

  2nd season

• Offensive Coordinator

  Josh McDaniels

  2nd season, this stint

• Offensive Line Coach

  Doug Marrone

• Defensive Coordinator

  Zak Kuhr

  1st season as full-time DC

• Defensive Line Coach

  Jason Houghtaling

Offensive unit ranks

Key skill players

• QB1Drake Maye(2025 NFL MVP runner-up, Pro Bowler)
• RB1Rhamondre Stevenson
• WR1A.J. Brown(acquired via trade from Philadelphia this offseason)
• WR2Romeo Doubs(free-agent addition from Green Bay)
• TE1Hunter Henry
• TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST)Patriots D/ST

Defensive unit ranks

Defensive efficiency

• 5.2 yards allowed per play, 12th of 32.
• 20.3% pressure rate generated (blitzed on 25.9% of dropbacks), 24th of 32.
• 32.2% opponent drive scoring rate — an above-average mark.
• 10.5% opponent drive turnover rate — roughly league-average.
• 71 missed tackles on the season.