HOUSTON TEXANS
AFC South•12-5 SU · 9-8 ATS•NRG Stadium
2026 Just J Football Companion profile
Schedule
Next up · Week 1
vs Buffalo Bills
Sun 9/13 · 1:00 PM
2026 schedule
- Wk 1vs Buffalo BillsSpread —Total —Sun 9/13 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 2vs Cincinnati BengalsSpread —Total —Sun 9/20 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 3at Indianapolis ColtsSpread —Total —Sun 9/27 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 4vs Dallas CowboysSpread —Total —Sun 10/4 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 5at Tennessee TitansSpread —Total —Sun 10/11 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 6at Jacksonville Jaguars (London)Spread —Total —Sun 10/18 · 9:30 AM
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- Wk 7vs New York GiantsSpread —Total —Sun 10/25 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 8Bye week
- Wk 9at Los Angeles ChargersSpread —Total —Sun 11/8 · 4:05 PM
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- Wk 10at Cleveland BrownsSpread —Total —Sun 11/15 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 11vs Indianapolis ColtsSpread —Total —Thu 11/19 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 12vs Baltimore RavensSpread —Total —Sun 11/29 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 13at Pittsburgh SteelersSpread —Total —Sun 12/6 · 8:20 PM
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- Wk 14at Washington CommandersSpread —Total —Sun 12/13 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 15vs Jacksonville JaguarsSpread —Total —Sun 12/20 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 16at Philadelphia EaglesSpread —Total —Thu 12/24 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 17at Green Bay PackersSpread —Total —Mon 1/4 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 18vs Tennessee TitansSpread —Total —
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Every game gets a JustJ pick — ATS side and total. Posted numbers are used the moment books hang them; until then the pick is quoted on the JustJ line and refreshes each week.
Schedule & market notes
- Bye: Week 8 — a mid-season bye, giving a roughly even split on either side.
- Short-week / non-Sunday games: 2 Thursday, 1 Monday — short-rest games carry their own well-documented ATS variance, worth flagging on your calendar as they approach.
- International game(s): Week 6 at Jacksonville Jaguars (London) — a true road game with no home-field advantage and real short-week/travel logistics even when technically the “home” team.
53-MAN ROSTER
Handicapping
Betting profile — vs. the number
2025 ATS
9-8
52.9% cover rate — 10th of 32
2025 Straight up
12-5
Point differential +109
Scoring environment
41.1
Combined points per game — 26th highest of 32
Home venue
Turf
NRG Stadium
Points scored / allowed
23.8 per game scored (13th) · 17.4 allowed (2nd)
Margin & schedule
Margin of victory +6.4 (6th) · Strength of schedule +2.2
- Home / road: Houston traded away longtime LT Laremy Tunsil to Washington this offseason, leaning on a retooled, largely rebuilt offensive line — real earlyseason continuity risk in front of Stroud.
- Trend: An elite front seven (Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr.) anchors Houston, but the league's worst-ranked offensive line (#31) is the clear vulnerability to target.
Power ratings — strength against the field
SRS power rating
+8.6
4th of 32 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field
Offensive SRS
+1.3
12th of 32
Defensive SRS
+7.2
1st of 32
Points (margin of victory)
+6.4 · 6th of 32
Against the spread
9-8 (52.9%) · 10th of 32
Totals (combined PPG)
41.1 · 26th of 32
Turnover differential +17 · 2025 results, Just J Football Companion / Pro-Football-Reference.
Power ratings & 2025 results
- 2025 record: 12-5-0 — Points For 404, Points Against 295 (differential +109).
- Margin of Victory: +6.4 pts/game — the average scoring margin across all 2025 games, win or lose.
- Strength of Schedule (SoS): +2.2 — Pro-Football-Reference's SRS-based measure of 2025 opponent quality; positive means a tougher slate than average.
- SRS (power rating): +8.6 — Simple Rating System score, which converts directly to a projected point spread on a neutral field against a leagueaverage team.
- Offensive SRS: +1.3 · Defensive SRS: +7.2 — the SRS power rating split into offensive and defensive components; higher offensive and higher defensive figures are both better.
- Turnover differential: +17 — total takeaways minus giveaways across the 2025 season, one of the more volatile year-to-year metrics and worth weighing against the rest of this profile rather than on its own.
League-wide unit ranks
Offensive Line
27
Defensive Line / Front Seven
2
Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, the only teammate duo with 90+ pass-rush grades; Tommy Togiai and Sheldon Rankins solid inside
Linebackers
3
Azeez Al-Shaair (75.9 PFF grade, career year) paired with Henry To'oTo'o
Defensive Backs / Secondary
2
Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Jalen Pitre give Houston one of the NFL's strongest defensive backfields
Special Teams
—
Kicker: Ka'imi Fairbairn
Overall Offense
12
Offensive SRS: +1.3
Overall Defense
1
Defensive SRS: +7.2
Handicapping notes
- Turf: NRG Stadium — 2025: 12-5 straight-up, 9-8 against the spread.
- : An elite front seven (Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr.) anchors Houston, but the league's worst-ranked offensive line (#31) is the clear vulnerability to target.
- : Houston traded away longtime LT Laremy Tunsil to Washington this offseason, leaning on a retooled, largely rebuilt offensive line — real earlyseason continuity risk in front of Stroud.
Pro Bowlers
- Offense: WR Nico Collins (2nd straight selection)
- Defense: LB Azeez Al-Shaair, Edge Will Anderson Jr. (First-team All-Pro), CB Derek Stingley Jr. (First-team All-Pro), S Calen Bullock, CB Kamari Lassiter
Coaches
Coaching staff
Head Coach
DeMeco Ryans
4th season
Offensive Coordinator
Nick Caley
2nd season
Offensive Line Coach
Cole Popovich
Defensive Coordinator
Matt Burke
4th season
Defensive Line Coach
Rod Wright
Offense
Offensive unit ranks
Offensive Line Rank
31/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Key skill players
- QB1C.J. StroudQB24
- RB1David Montgomery(acquired via trade from Detroit this offseason)RB20 range
- WR1Nico CollinsWR13 range
- WR2Christian Kirkoutside the top 50 WRs
- TE1Dalton SchultzTE23
- TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST)Texans D/ST
Key Offensive Line
LT Aireontae ErseryMinnesota
still on his rookie contract (2025 2nd-round pick, No. 48 overall). 2nd NFL season; moved to left tackle in Week 2 of his rookie year to protect Stroud's blind side after an up-and-down debut on the right side.
LG Wyatt TellerVirginia Tech
veteran free-agent addition from Cleveland; 9th NFL season, brought in to raise the floor of an offensive line that's been a persistent problem in the C.J. Stroud era.
RT Braden SmithAuburn
2 yr / $25M free-agent signing (2026), $13.5M fully guaranteed. 9th NFL season; started 105 of 107 games across eight seasons in Indianapolis before joining Houston.
Defense
Defensive unit ranks
Defensive Line Rank (front seven)
1/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Defensive efficiency
- 4.8 yards allowed per play, 4th of 32.
- 21.5% pressure rate generated (blitzed on 18.9% of dropbacks), 20th of 32.
- 27.6% opponent drive scoring rate — one of the best scoring defenses in the league by this measure.
- 14.6% opponent drive turnover rate — one of the higher forced-turnover rates in the league.
- 98 missed tackles on the season.
Key Defensive Line
Edge Danielle HunterLSU
1 yr / $40.1M extension (2026), fully guaranteed; ~$35.6M AAV. 12th NFL season; a 5x Pro Bowler and 2025 Second-team All-Pro anchoring the NFL's top-ranked front seven.
Edge Will Anderson Jr.Alabama
still on his rookie contract; a 2025 First-team All-Pro with an extension expected. 4th NFL season; paired with Hunter to form one of the league's most feared edge-rushing duos.
DT Denico AutryMississippi State
took a pay cut to a 1 yr / $7.5M deal ($3M guaranteed); 12th NFL season, providing experienced interior depth.
Key Linebackers
LB Azeez Al-ShaairSan Diego State
3 yr / $34M contract (2024); a 2025 Pro Bowler and the emotional leader of Houston's defense heading into 2026.
LB Henry To'oTo'oAlabama
returning starter alongside Al-Shaair; 4th NFL season, part of what's regarded as one of the deepest linebacker rooms in the NFL.
LB E.J. SpeedIowa State
veteran depth linebacker dealing with a quad injury entering 2026; when healthy, part of Houston's three-deep rotation at every linebacker spot.
Key Defensive Backs
CB Derek Stingley Jr.LSU
still on his rookie-era extension window; a 2024 First-team All-Pro and one of the NFL's best cornerbacks, with a new contract expected soon.
CB Kamari LassiterGeorgia
still on his rookie contract (2024 2nd-round pick). 3rd NFL season; the every-down starter opposite Stingley.
S Calen BullockUSC
still on his rookie contract (2024 3rd-round pick). 3rd NFL season; a Pro Bowler anchoring the back end of Houston's topranked defense. A FC SO UT H HOUSTON TEXANS
Fantasy
Projected fantasy points per game · 2026
Standard 12-team scoring (non-PPR): 1 pt / 25 pass yds, 4 pts pass TD, -2 INT, 1 pt / 10 rush+rec yds, 6 pts TD, -2 fumble lost. Projections are modeled from each player's 2026 positional rank.
| Player | Rank | Proj FPPG | Proj season | Actual FPPG | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 C.J. Stroud | QB24 | 14.1 | 240 | — | — |
| RB1 David Montgomery | RB20 range | — | — | — | — |
| WR1 Nico Collins | WR13 range | — | — | — | — |
| WR2 Christian Kirk | outside the top 50 WRs | — | — | — | — |
| TE1 Dalton Schultz | TE23 | 5.8 | 99 | — | — |
| TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST) Texans D/ST | — | — | — | — | — |
Season fantasy tracker
Weekly fantasy scoring for these players appears here once 2026 games go final — each week's points are graded in standard 12-team scoring and rolled into the actual FPPG above.
Environment
- Home games: played under a fixed or retractable roof — every home date is a weather-neutral, full-strength fantasy environment for this offense.
- Road dome/retractable-roof games: ideal weather-neutral spots for maximum fantasy production: Wk 3 (Indianapolis Colts), Wk 9 (Los Angeles Chargers).
- 2025 recap: Nico Collins was a strong fantasy WR1, C.J. Stroud's numbers stayed middling behind a struggling offensive line, and the RB room lacked a clear lead back most of the season.
- 2026 projection: David Montgomery's trade addition gives Houston a clearer lead-back role. Collins remains a locked-in WR1 target earner. Stroud's ceiling stays capped until the retooled offensive line proves it can protect him consistently.
- Nico Collins: Pro: a true WR1 with elite catch-point ability regardless of QB play. Con: offensive line concerns could limit overall passing efficiency.
- David Montgomery: Pro: clear path to lead-back touches in a new offense. Con: touchdown competition and a suspect offensive line cap his ceiling.
- Texans D/ST: Pro: an elite, top-2-ranked front seven makes this a strong streaming option most weeks. Con: minimal — one of the safer defensive starts in fantasy. A FC SO UT H HOUSTON TEXANS
NOTES
No notes on HOUSTON TEXANS yet.