DENVER BRONCOS
AFC West•14-3 SU · 7-9-1 ATS•Empower Field at Mile High
2026 Just J Football Companion profile
Schedule
Next up · Week 1
at Kansas City Chiefs
Mon 9/14 · 8:15 PM
2026 schedule
- Wk 1at Kansas City ChiefsSpread —Total —Mon 9/14 · 8:15 PM
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 2vs Jacksonville JaguarsSpread —Total —Sun 9/20 · 4:05 PM
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 3vs Los Angeles RamsSpread —Total —Sun 9/27 · 8:15 PM
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 4at San Francisco 49ersSpread —Total —Sun 10/4 · 4:25 PM
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 5at Los Angeles ChargersSpread —Total —Sun 10/11 · 4:05 PM
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 6vs Seattle SeahawksSpread —Total —Thu 10/15 · 8:15 PM
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 7at Arizona CardinalsSpread —Total —Sun 10/25 · 4:05 PM
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 8vs Kansas City ChiefsSpread —Total —Sun 11/1 · 4:25 PM
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 9at Carolina PanthersSpread —Total —Sun 11/8 · 1:00 PM
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 10Bye week
- Wk 11vs Las Vegas RaidersSpread —Total —Sun 11/22 · 4:25 PM
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 12at Pittsburgh SteelersSpread —Total —Fri 11/27 · 3:00 PM
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 13vs Miami DolphinsSpread —Total —
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 14at New York JetsSpread —Total —
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 15at Las Vegas RaidersSpread —Total —Sun 12/20 · 4:25 PM
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 16vs Buffalo BillsSpread —Total —Fri 12/25 · 4:30 PM
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 17at New England PatriotsSpread —Total —
JustJ pick loading…
- Wk 18vs Los Angeles ChargersSpread —Total —
JustJ pick loading…
Every game gets a JustJ pick — ATS side and total. Posted numbers are used the moment books hang them; until then the pick is quoted on the JustJ line and refreshes each week.
Schedule & market notes
- Bye: Week 10 — a mid-season bye, giving a roughly even split on either side.
- Short-week / non-Sunday games: 1 Thursday, 1 Monday, 2 Friday — short-rest games carry their own well-documented ATS variance, worth flagging on your calendar as they approach.
53-MAN ROSTER
Handicapping
Betting profile — vs. the number
2025 ATS
7-9-1
43.8% cover rate — 23rd of 32
2025 Straight up
14-3
Point differential +90
Scoring environment
41.9
Combined points per game — 23rd highest of 32
Home venue
Grass
Empower Field at Mile High
Points scored / allowed
23.6 per game scored (14th) · 18.3 allowed (3rd)
Margin & schedule
Margin of victory +5.3 (7th) · Strength of schedule -1.8
- Trend: Denver's #1-ranked offensive line (Sharp Football) anchors an elite team straight-up, but a middling 7-9-1 ATS mark suggests the market has caught up — little easy value as a favorite.
- Trend: The linebacker corps was rebuilt after releasing Dre Greenlaw and losing John Franklin-Myers via trade — some evaluators see Denver's run defense as a real question mark despite the unit's otherwise elite reputation.
Power ratings — strength against the field
SRS power rating
+3.5
10th of 32 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field
Offensive SRS
-0.1
15th of 32
Defensive SRS
+3.5
7th of 32
Points (margin of victory)
+5.3 · 7th of 32
Against the spread
7-9-1 (43.8%) · 23rd of 32
Totals (combined PPG)
41.9 · 23rd of 32
Turnover differential -3 · 2025 results, Just J Football Companion / Pro-Football-Reference.
Power ratings & 2025 results
- 2025 record: 14-3-0 — Points For 401, Points Against 311 (differential +90).
- Margin of Victory: +5.3 pts/game — the average scoring margin across all 2025 games, win or lose.
- Strength of Schedule (SoS): -1.8 — Pro-Football-Reference's SRS-based measure of 2025 opponent quality; positive means a tougher slate than average.
- SRS (power rating): +3.5 — Simple Rating System score, which converts directly to a projected point spread on a neutral field against a leagueaverage team.
- Offensive SRS: -0.1 · Defensive SRS: +3.5 — the SRS power rating split into offensive and defensive components; higher offensive and higher defensive figures are both better.
- Turnover differential: -3 — total takeaways minus giveaways across the 2025 season, one of the more volatile year-to-year metrics and worth weighing against the rest of this profile rather than on its own.
League-wide unit ranks
Offensive Line
1
Defensive Line / Front Seven
6
Zach Allen (83 pressures, led all interior D) and Nik Bonitto (81 pressures) both top-15 at their spots
Linebackers
16
Alex Singleton (72.2 grade) and Justin Strnad (71.1 coverage grade) balance well together
Defensive Backs / Secondary
3
Rounds out the top three behind a talented group of defensive backs
Special Teams
—
Kicker: Wil Lutz
Overall Offense
15
Offensive SRS: -0.1
Overall Defense
7
Defensive SRS: +3.5
Handicapping notes
- Grass: Empower Field at Mile High — 2025: 14-3 straight-up, 7-9-1 against the spread.
- : Denver's #1-ranked offensive line (Sharp Football) anchors an elite team straight-up, but a middling 7-9-1 ATS mark suggests the market has caught up — little easy value as a favorite.
- : The linebacker corps was rebuilt after releasing Dre Greenlaw and losing John Franklin-Myers via trade — some evaluators see Denver's run defense as a real question mark despite the unit's otherwise elite reputation.
Pro Bowlers
- Offense: WR Courtland Sutton (1st selection), OT Garett Bolles (1st selection, First-team All-Pro), OG Quinn Meinerz (First-team All-Pro)
- Defense: DT Zach Allen (1st selection, First-team All-Pro), OLB Nik Bonitto, CB Patrick Surtain II (Second-team All-Pro)
Coaches
Coaching staff
Head Coach
Sean Payton
4th season
Offensive Coordinator
Davis Webb
1st season as OC, play-caller
Offensive Line Coach
Chris Morgan
Defensive Coordinator
Vance Joseph
4th season
Defensive Line Coach
Jamar Cain
Offense
Offensive unit ranks
Offensive Line Rank
1/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason (only unanimous No. 1 selection across any position group)
Key skill players
- QB1Bo NixQB10
- RB1J.K. DobbinsRB20 range
- WR1Courtland SuttonWR25 range
- WR2Jaylen Waddle(acquired via trade from Miami this offseason)WR19
- TE1Evan Engramoutside the top 20 TEs
- TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST)Broncos D/ST
Key Offensive Line
LT Garett BollesUtah
4 yr / $82M extension; ~$20.5M AAV. 9th NFL season; First-team All-Pro and Pro Bowler in 2025.
RG Quinn MeinerzWisconsin-Whitewater
4 yr extension (2024). 5th NFL season; First-team All-Pro in 2025.
RT Mike McGlincheyNotre Dame
5 yr / $87.5M free-agent signing (2023), $50M guaranteed. 8th NFL season; a former 9th-overall pick who started 69 games over 5 seasons in San Francisco before joining Denver.
Defense
Defensive unit ranks
Defensive Line Rank (front seven)
4/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Defensive efficiency
- 4.5 yards allowed per play, 1st of 32.
- 30.5% pressure rate generated (blitzed on 28.5% of dropbacks), 2nd of 32.
- 34.6% opponent drive scoring rate — an above-average mark.
- 6.8% opponent drive turnover rate — one of the lower forced-turnover rates in the league.
- 85 missed tackles on the season.
Key Defensive Line
DT Zach AllenBoston College
4 yr / $102M extension, $69.5M guaranteed; ~$25.5M AAV. 7th NFL season; First-team All-Pro in 2025.
NT D.J. JonesOle Miss
veteran free-agent addition from San Francisco. 9th NFL season; a run-stuffing nose tackle anchoring Denver's interior.
Edge/OLB Nik BonittoOklahoma
led the team with 14 sacks in 2025; extension talks ongoing. 5th NFL season; a Pro Bowler entering a contract year.
Key Linebackers
ILB Alex SingletonMontana State
veteran free-agent addition from Philadelphia. 8th NFL season; a productive tackle-machine linebacker brought in to anchor Denver's second level.
ILB Justin StrnadWake Forest
stepping into a starting role after Dre Greenlaw's release. 6th NFL season; filled in effectively during Greenlaw's 2025 injury absences.
Edge/LB Jonah EllissUtah
still on his rookie contract (2024 3rd-round pick). 3rd NFL season; part of Denver's deep rotation off the edge.
Key Defensive Backs
CB Patrick Surtain IIAlabama
long-term extension; the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year. 5th NFL season; a 3x All-Pro and the cornerstone of Denver's defense.
S Talanoa HufangaUSC
free-agent signing (2025) from San Francisco. 5th NFL season; a former All-Pro safety brought in to anchor the back end alongside Surtain.
CB Riley MossIowa
still on his rookie-era extension window (2023 3rd-round pick). 4th NFL season; the primary corner opposite Surtain. A FC WE S T DENVER BRONCOS
Fantasy
Projected fantasy points per game · 2026
Standard 12-team scoring (non-PPR): 1 pt / 25 pass yds, 4 pts pass TD, -2 INT, 1 pt / 10 rush+rec yds, 6 pts TD, -2 fumble lost. Projections are modeled from each player's 2026 positional rank.
| Player | Rank | Proj FPPG | Proj season | Actual FPPG | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 Bo Nix | QB10Starter | 18.6 | 316 | — | — |
| RB1 J.K. Dobbins | RB20 range | — | — | — | — |
| WR1 Courtland Sutton | WR25 range | — | — | — | — |
| WR2 Jaylen Waddle | WR19Starter | 12.5 | 213 | — | — |
| TE1 Evan Engram | outside the top 20 TEs | — | — | — | — |
| TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST) Broncos D/ST | — | — | — | — | — |
Season fantasy tracker
Weekly fantasy scoring for these players appears here once 2026 games go final — each week's points are graded in standard 12-team scoring and rolled into the actual FPPG above.
Environment
- Home games: outdoor stadium — late-season (Dec./Jan.) home dates carry real weather risk for passing-game and kicking volume.
- Road dome/retractable-roof games: ideal weather-neutral spots for maximum fantasy production: Wk 5 (Los Angeles Chargers), Wk 7 (Arizona Cardinals), Wk 15 (Las Vegas Raiders).
- 2025 recap: Bo Nix took a real step forward as a fantasy asset behind an elite offensive line, while Sutton remained a steady WR2/3-caliber target earner in a run-emphasizing offense.
- 2026 projection: The Jaylen Waddle trade addition gives Denver a legitimate secondary receiving weapon alongside Sutton, which should also help Nix's overall floor. Denver's #1 D/ST ranking makes it one of the safer streaming/starting defenses in the league.
- Bo Nix: Pro: an elite offensive line and a real season of development behind him. Con: still a run-first, ball-control offense that can cap weekly ceiling.
- Courtland Sutton: Pro: proven target earner with real touchdown upside in the red zone. Con: target competition from Waddle's arrival could cut into his overall volume.
- Broncos D/ST: Pro: the top-ranked fantasy defense entering the season, a safe start most weeks. Con: some regression is possible after an elite 2025. A FC WE S T DENVER BRONCOS
NOTES
No notes on DENVER BRONCOS yet.