TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
NFC South•8-9 SU · 5-12 ATS•Raymond James Stadium
2026 Just J Football Companion profile
Schedule
Next up · Week 1
at Cincinnati Bengals
Sun 9/13 · 1:00 PM
2026 schedule
- Wk 1at Cincinnati BengalsSpread —Total —Sun 9/13 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 2vs Cleveland BrownsSpread —Total —Sun 9/20 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 3vs Minnesota VikingsSpread —Total —Sun 9/27 · 4:05 PM
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- Wk 4vs Green Bay PackersSpread —Total —Sun 10/4 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 5at Dallas CowboysSpread —Total —Thu 10/8 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 6vs Pittsburgh SteelersSpread —Total —Sun 10/18 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 7at Carolina PanthersSpread —Total —Sun 10/25 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 8vs Atlanta FalconsSpread —Total —Sun 11/1 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 9at Chicago BearsSpread —Total —Sun 11/8 · 8:20 PM
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- Wk 10Bye week
- Wk 11at Detroit LionsSpread —Total —Sun 11/22 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 12vs Carolina PanthersSpread —Total —Mon 11/30 · 8:15 PM
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- Wk 13vs Los Angeles ChargersSpread —Total —Sun 12/6 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 14at Baltimore RavensSpread —Total —Sun 12/13 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 15vs New Orleans SaintsSpread —Total —Sun 12/20 · 1:00 PM
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- Wk 16at Atlanta FalconsSpread —Total —
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- Wk 17vs Los Angeles RamsSpread —Total —
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- Wk 18at New Orleans SaintsSpread —Total —
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Every game gets a JustJ pick — ATS side and total. Posted numbers are used the moment books hang them; until then the pick is quoted on the JustJ line and refreshes each week.
Schedule & market notes
- Bye: Week 10 — a mid-season bye, giving a roughly even split on either side.
- Short-week / non-Sunday games: 1 Thursday, 1 Monday — short-rest games carry their own well-documented ATS variance, worth flagging on your calendar as they approach.
53-MAN ROSTER
Handicapping
Betting profile — vs. the number
2025 ATS
5-12
29.4% cover rate — 32nd of 32
2025 Straight up
8-9
Point differential -31
Scoring environment
46.5
Combined points per game — 16th highest of 32
Home venue
Grass
Raymond James Stadium
Points scored / allowed
22.4 per game scored (18th) · 24.2 allowed (21st)
Margin & schedule
Margin of victory -1.8 (19th) · Strength of schedule +0.8
- Trend: Tampa Bay was a poor ATS team in 2025 (5-12) despite a .500 record — a live fade angle as a favorite until proven otherwise in 2026.
- Trend: Vita Vea's trade request is a real situation to track — his availability and focus level are both legitimate questions entering the season.
Power ratings — strength against the field
SRS power rating
-1.1
19th of 32 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field
Offensive SRS
+0.3
14th of 32
Defensive SRS
-1.3
22nd of 32
Points (margin of victory)
-1.8 · 19th of 32
Against the spread
5-12 (29.4%) · 32nd of 32
Totals (combined PPG)
46.5 · 16th of 32
Turnover differential +7 · 2025 results, Just J Football Companion / Pro-Football-Reference.
Power ratings & 2025 results
- 2025 record: 8-9-0 — Points For 380, Points Against 411 (differential -31).
- Margin of Victory: -1.8 pts/game — the average scoring margin across all 2025 games, win or lose.
- Strength of Schedule (SoS): +0.8 — Pro-Football-Reference's SRS-based measure of 2025 opponent quality; positive means a tougher slate than average.
- SRS (power rating): -1.1 — Simple Rating System score, which converts directly to a projected point spread on a neutral field against a leagueaverage team.
- Offensive SRS: +0.3 · Defensive SRS: -1.3 — the SRS power rating split into offensive and defensive components; higher offensive and higher defensive figures are both better.
- Turnover differential: +7 — total takeaways minus giveaways across the 2025 season, one of the more volatile year-to-year metrics and worth weighing against the rest of this profile rather than on its own.
League-wide unit ranks
Offensive Line
3
Defensive Line / Front Seven
11
Hinges on Vita Vea trade-request situation; Yaya Diaby (62 pressures) plus rookie Reuben Bain Jr.
Linebackers
23
Lavonte David era is over; Alex Anzalone and rookie Josiah Trotter now starting
Defensive Backs / Secondary
—
Special Teams
—
Kicker: Chase McLaughlin
Overall Offense
14
Offensive SRS: +0.3
Overall Defense
22
Defensive SRS: -1.3
Handicapping notes
- Grass: Raymond James Stadium — 2025: 8-9 straight-up, 5-12 against the spread.
- : Tampa Bay was a poor ATS team in 2025 (5-12) despite a .500 record — a live fade angle as a favorite until proven otherwise in 2026.
- Vita Vea's trade request is a real situation to track: his availability and focus level are both legitimate questions entering the season.
Pro Bowlers
- Offense: OT Tristan Wirfs (5th straight selection)
- Defense: S Antoine Winfield Jr.
Coaches
Coaching staff
Head Coach
Todd Bowles
5th season
Offensive Coordinator
Zac Robinson
1st season
Offensive Line Coach
Kevin Carberry
Defensive Coordinator
Todd Bowles calls the defense; no separate DC title
George Edwards is passing-game coordinator, Larry Foote run-game coordinator
Defensive Line Coach
Marcus West
Offense
Offensive unit ranks
Offensive Line Rank
4/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Key skill players
- QB1Baker MayfieldQB20
- RB1Bucky IrvingRB21
- WR1Emeka Egbuka(WR1 after Mike Evans departed in free agency this offseason)WR11
- WR2Chris GodwinWR30 range
- TE1Cade Ottonoutside the top 25 TEs
- TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST)Buccaneers D/ST
Key Offensive Line
LT Tristan WirfsIowa
5 yr / $140.63M extension (2024); ~$28.1M AAV, was the NFL's highest-paid offensive lineman at signing. 7th NFL season; a 3x All-Pro entering camp banged up with a hamstring injury.
LG Ben BredesonMichigan
returning starter; 6th NFL season, part of an offensive line that's kept its core together for multiple years running.
C Graham BartonDuke
still on his rookie contract (2024 1st-round pick); extension-eligible after 2026. 3rd NFL season; part of what beat writers call one of the sport's steadiest young lines.
Defense
Defensive unit ranks
Defensive Line Rank (front seven)
14/32
Sharp Football Analysis, 2026 preseason
Defensive efficiency
- 5.7 yards allowed per play, 25th of 32.
- 19.8% pressure rate generated (blitzed on 29.6% of dropbacks), 25th of 32.
- 39.1% opponent drive scoring rate — a middle-of-the-pack mark.
- 12.3% opponent drive turnover rate — roughly league-average.
- 93 missed tackles on the season.
Key Defensive Line
DT Vita VeaWashington
4 yr / $71M extension; ~$17.75M AAV. 8th NFL season; a 2x Pro Bowler currently in a contract standoff seeking a raise and has requested a trade — a real situation to monitor into the season.
DT Calijah KanceyPittsburgh
still on his rookie contract; the Buccaneers exercised his 2027 option after he posted 11.5 sacks and 66 quarterback pressures across his first 29 career games. 4th NFL season.
Edge Yaya DiabyLouisville
still on his rookie-era extension window (2023 3rd-round pick); considered a top extension candidate heading into 2026 after a productive first three seasons.
Key Linebackers
ILB Alex AnzaloneFlorida
free-agent addition from Detroit; 9th NFL season, brought in specifically to fill the leadership void left by Lavonte David's retirement.
ILB SirVocea DennisPittsburgh
returning starter alongside Anzalone; 3rd NFL season in a linebacker room that was substantially reshaped this offseason.
Rueben Bain Jr. (OLB, Miami (FL)) — still on his rookie contract (2026 draft pick). Has been turning heads in camp as a rookie and is already seen as a vocal presence on defense.
Key Defensive Backs
S Antoine Winfield Jr.Minnesota
long-term veteran cornerstone; 7th NFL season, a Pro Bowler considered one of the best safeties in the league and arguably Tampa Bay's best overall defender.
CB Zyon McCollumSam Houston
signed an extension through 2028; 5th NFL season, needs a rebound year after a 2025 that beat writers flagged as a disappointment relative to his new contract.
CB Jacob ParrishKansas State
still on his rookie contract; 2nd NFL season, was the team's starting nickelback as a rookie and is now competing for an outside starting job. NF C S OU TH TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Fantasy
Projected fantasy points per game · 2026
Standard 12-team scoring (non-PPR): 1 pt / 25 pass yds, 4 pts pass TD, -2 INT, 1 pt / 10 rush+rec yds, 6 pts TD, -2 fumble lost. Projections are modeled from each player's 2026 positional rank.
| Player | Rank | Proj FPPG | Proj season | Actual FPPG | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 Baker Mayfield | QB20 | 15.4 | 262 | — | — |
| RB1 Bucky Irving | RB21Starter | 11.1 | 189 | — | — |
| WR1 Emeka Egbuka | WR11Starter | 14.3 | 243 | — | — |
| WR2 Chris Godwin | WR30 range | — | — | — | — |
| TE1 Cade Otton | outside the top 25 TEs | — | — | — | — |
| TEAM DEFENSE (D/ST) Buccaneers D/ST | — | — | — | — | — |
Season fantasy tracker
Weekly fantasy scoring for these players appears here once 2026 games go final — each week's points are graded in standard 12-team scoring and rolled into the actual FPPG above.
Environment
- Home games: outdoor stadium — late-season (Dec./Jan.) home dates carry real weather risk for passing-game and kicking volume.
- Road dome/retractable-roof games: ideal weather-neutral spots for maximum fantasy production: Wk 5 (Dallas Cowboys), Wk 11 (Detroit Lions), Wk 16 (Atlanta Falcons), Wk 18 (New Orleans Saints).
- 2025 recap: Baker Mayfield was a strong fantasy QB1 in stretches, Bucky Irving broke out as a rookie RB, and Emeka Egbuka flashed real targetearning ability behind Mike Evans before Evans's offseason departure.
- 2026 projection: Egbuka steps into the clear WR1 role and projects as a real fantasy riser. Irving remains a solid RB2 with receiving-work upside. Mayfield stays a streaming-caliber QB2 with real weekly upside in a pass-heavy, no-punt offense.
- Emeka Egbuka: Pro: inherits true WR1 target volume after Evans's departure. Con: unproven as a true No. 1 option over a full season.
- Bucky Irving: Pro: real receiving work on top of early-down touches. Con: touchdown competition and a crowded backfield can cap his ceiling some weeks. NF C S OU TH TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
NOTES
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