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BIG 12 FOOTBALL COMPANION GUIDE • ALPHABETICAL 12 OF 16

TCU HORNED FROGS

2026 Season Snapshot • Fort Worth, Texas

9-4 (5-4 Big 12)

BIG 12

2026 Schedule

Live schedule, lines and results for TCU.

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HEAD COACH

HANDICAPPING PROFILE

HEAD COACH

Sonny Dykes — 5th season at TCU

LIFETIME COACHING RECORD

36–17 at TCU

Arrived from rival SMU in 2022 and immediately led TCU to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game in his first season. Has posted back-to-back 9-4 finishes since, winning bowl games both years (including an Alamo Bowl OT win over USC in 2025) — the most wins by any Big 12 program since his arrival, rewarded with a new extension in April 2026.

TCU ATS RECORD

No single published career ATS figure

2025 finished 9-4 (5-4 Big 12), capped by an Alamo Bowl overtime win over USC and a No. 25 final AP ranking. TCU has been good-not-great in back-to- back seasons under Dykes — competitive but not a serious Big 12 title threat either year.

HEAD COACH SALARY (2026)

$7.0M+

TEAM NIL VALUATION (EST.)

Not disclosed

PRIMARY NIL COLLECTIVE

Not publicly named

Coach salary per CBS Sports/multiple reports: Dykes made just over $7M in 2025 (3rd-highest in the Big 12) under his prior deal through 2028; a new multi-year extension was agreed in April 2026 with terms not yet fully disclosed, with outside estimates projecting $8.5-9M annually. TCU has not disclosed a team NIL figure or a named primary collective.

HANDICAPPING NOTES

  • A real, pointed program statement about the departed starter: Dykes publicly noted Josh Hoover's 42 turnovers in 31 starts as he left for Indiana — a rare, specific on-record critique of a departing QB rather than the usual diplomatic goodbye.
  • Coordinator continuity broken at the same time as the QB change: OC Kendal Briles and OL coach Randy Clements both left for South Carolina, while Hoover departed simultaneously — real, compounding offensive turnover heading into 2026.
  • New starter has a specific, favorable turnover profile: Harvard transfer Jaden Craig threw just 7 INT on 25 TD in 2025 — the exact stat Dykes highlighted as Hoover's weakness, suggesting a deliberate program-wide emphasis shift.

COORDINATORS & SCHEME

OFFENSE / DEFENSE

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR

Gordon Sammis — 1st season • Air raid

New hire after Kendal Briles left for South Carolina. Inherits Jaden Craig, a Harvard transfer who threw for 2,869 yards and 25 TD against just 7 INT in 2025 — specifically brought in for the turnover efficiency Dykes said the offense lacked under Hoover.

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR

Andy Avalos — 3rd season • Base 4-2-5

Enters year three giving cornerbacks real freedom to play aggressively per spring reports, with breakout buzz already building around DB Gil Jackson. The clearest coordinator continuity on the roster amid the offensive overhaul.

2025 SEASON RECAP

RECORD & VENUE NOTES

2025 RECORD

9–4 (5–4 Big 12)

Valero Alamo Bowl: W 30-27 (OT) vs. USC. TCU's second straight 9-4 finish and bowl win, though Texas Tech's emergence as the Big 12's clear top team in 2025 pushed the Horned Frogs into the league's second tier.

HOME FIELD

Amon G. Carter Stadium

Natural grass, Fort Worth. TCU opens 2026 at the Aer Lingus College Football Classic in Dublin against North Carolina — a high-profile international opener for a program looking to reassert itself after Texas Tech's 2025 breakthrough.

PRIMARY SKILL PLAYERS

2026 PROJECTED STARTERS
QB1Jaden Craig
TOP TRANSFER

Harvard transfer (FCS); 2,869 pass yds, 25 TD, just 7 INT and 3 rush TD in 2025, specifically brought in for the ball-security profile Dykes said the offense needed after Josh Hoover's departure to Indiana (42 turnovers in 31 starts).

RB1Jeremy Payne

Four-star signee (Hightower HS, Missouri City, Texas; No. 16 RB, school's all-time leading rusher). Generating real spring buzz per beat coverage; positioned as the lead back in Gordon Sammis' new offensive system.

OFFENSIVE LINE

2026 PROJECTED
Line under new OL coachOL

Randy Clements left for South Carolina alongside Briles; a new position coach installs fresh technique behind a new starting QB.

HANDICAPPING NOTE — O-LINE

  • Losing both the OC and OL coach in the same offseason as the starting QB is real, compounding offensive installation risk heading into 2026.

DEFENSIVE LINE

2026 PROJECTED
Front seven under AvalosDL

Benefits from Andy Avalos' third-year continuity, the clearest coordinator stability on the roster amid the offensive overhaul.

LINEBACKERS

2026 PROJECTED
  • TCU's linebacker corps plays under the same coordinator (Andy Avalos) for a third straight season — real defensive continuity while the offense rebuilds around a new coordinator, OL coach, and starting quarterback simultaneously.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

2026 PROJECTED
Gil JacksonCB

Generating real spring buzz as Avalos' aggressive new coverage scheme gives cornerbacks more freedom — one of the names to watch as the defense looks to be the team's anchor in 2026.

SPECIAL TEAMS

KICKING, PUNTING & RETURN GAME
  • Punter: Ethan Craw was named to the 2026 Ray Guy Award watch list as one of the nation's top collegiate punters, a real specialist strength. Overall: No other major storylines flagged; TCU's most reliable phase heading into a season of otherwise real offensive transition.

Betting profile — vs. the number

2025 ATS

7-6

53.8% cover rate — 32nd of 82

2025 Straight up

9-4

Point differential +70

Scoring environment

56

Combined points per game — 21st highest of 82

Home / road ATS

4-2 · 2-4

Totals 7-6 O/U (3-3 home, 3-3 road)

Points scored / allowed

30.7 per game scored (28th) · 25.3 allowed (49th)

Margin & schedule

Margin of victory +5.4 (37th) · Strength of schedule +3.3

  • Home / road: Home 4-2 ATS, road 2-4 ATS (neutral-site games excluded).
  • Home / road: Totals 7-6 O/U — 3-3 at home, 3-3 on the road.
  • Trend: 2025 ATS 7-6 (53.8% cover rate) across 13 games.
  • Trend: Averaged 30.7 points and allowed 25.3, a 56 combined per-game scoring environment.

Power ratings — strength against the field

SRS power rating

+8.4

22nd of 82 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field

Offensive SRS

+5.4

26th of 82

Defensive SRS

+3.3

36th of 82

Points (margin of victory)

+5.4 · 37th of 82

Against the spread

7-6 (53.8%) · 32nd of 82

Totals (combined PPG)

56 · 21st of 82

Computed from CollegeFootballData 2025 results and closing consensus lines.

Notes

Saved Just J research for TCU.

Quarterback

A real, pointed program statement about the departed starter

Dykes publicly noted Josh Hoover's 42 turnovers in 31 starts as he left for Indiana — a rare, specific on-record critique of a departing QB rather than the usual diplomatic goodbye.

Quarterback

Coordinator continuity broken at the same time as the QB change

OC Kendal Briles and OL coach Randy Clements both left for South Carolina, while Hoover departed simultaneously — real, compounding offensive turnover heading into 2026.

Personnel

New starter has a specific, favorable turnover profile

Harvard transfer Jaden Craig threw just 7 INT on 25 TD in 2025 — the exact stat Dykes highlighted as Hoover's weakness, suggesting a deliberate program-wide emphasis shift.

Offensive Line

Offensive line outlook

Losing both the OC and OL coach in the same offseason as the starting QB is real, compounding offensive installation risk heading into 2026.

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