Historic collapse triggered a $49.7M buyout
Franklin was fired mid-season after a preseason No. 2 ranking fell apart against Oregon, UCLA, and Northwestern — the 2nd-largest coaching buyout in college football history.
BIG TEN FOOTBALL COMPANION GUIDE • ALPHABETICAL 12 OF 18
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
2026 Season Snapshot • University Park, Pennsylvania
3-6 under Franklin/interim Terry Smith (final record not
B1G
2026 Schedule
Live schedule, lines and results for Penn State.
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HEAD COACH
HANDICAPPING PROFILEHEAD COACH
Matt Campbell — 1st season at Penn State
LIFETIME COACHING RECORD
107–70 (15 seasons, Toledo & Iowa State)
Three-time Big 12 Coach of the Year who built Iowa State into a consistent winner (11-3 in 2024, Pop-Tarts Bowl champion). Hired after a chaotic 54- day search in which Penn State was reportedly turned down by Kalani Sitake, Kalen DeBoer, and several other top targets before landing Campbell.
PENN STATE ATS RECORD
No single published career ATS figure
Penn State fired James Franklin on Oct. 12, 2025 at 3-3 (0-3 Big Ten) after entering the season ranked No. 2 in the AP preseason poll — the first team since 1978 to lose consecutive games favored by 20+ points in each. Interim Terry Smith went 1-3 the rest of the way.
HEAD COACH SALARY (2026)
$8.0M
TEAM NIL VALUATION (EST.)
~$30M (est.)
PRIMARY NIL COLLECTIVE
Not publicly named
Coach salary per Penn State's released term sheet (8-yr, $70.5M fully guaranteed, escalating to $9.25M by 2031). NIL figure is a third-party estimate reported by Matt Fortuna (Inside Zone); Penn State is separately paying fired coach James Franklin roughly $49.7M through 2031 — one of the most expensive coaching transitions in the sport's history.
HANDICAPPING NOTES
- Historic collapse triggered a $49.7M buyout: Franklin was fired mid-season after a preseason No. 2 ranking fell apart against Oregon, UCLA, and Northwestern — the 2nd-largest coaching buyout in college football history.
- The coaching search itself devastated the 2026 recruiting class: Penn State's class fell to No. 134 nationally as commits fled (11 to Franklin's new program at Virginia Tech alone) during the 54-day search — a real, quantifiable cost of front-office dysfunction.
- Campbell imported his entire operation: QB Rocco Becht, OC Taylor Mouser, and other Iowa State staff all followed him to State College — a full program transplant rather than a from-scratch rebuild, which should reduce (not eliminate) Year 1 installation risk.
COORDINATORS & SCHEME
OFFENSE / DEFENSEOFFENSIVE COORDINATOR
Taylor Mouser — 1st season • Multiple
Followed Campbell from Iowa State, where he coordinated Rocco Becht's offense for the QB's entire career. That built-in continuity between playcaller and quarterback is a rare advantage for a first-year staff.
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR
Jon Heacock — 1st season • Multiple
Also followed from Iowa State, extending the same continuity to the defensive side. Penn State's defense loses significant NFL Draft talent (Dani Dennis-Sutton, Zane Durant among 8 total draft picks) but the scheme transition should be smoother with a staff that's worked together for years.
2025 SEASON RECAP
RECORD & VENUE NOTES2025 RECORD
3–6 under Franklin/interim Terry Smith (final record not softened by coaching change)
Preseason No. 2 in the country with CFP semifinal pedigree from 2024, Penn State collapsed to 3-3 by Oct. 12 and finished the year further under interim Terry Smith — one of the most stunning single-season program collapses in recent memory.
HOME FIELD
Beaver Stadium
Natural grass, University Park. Currently undergoing a $700M renovation expected to finish by 2027 — a major long-term investment happening simultaneously with the most turbulent coaching transition in recent program history.
PRIMARY SKILL PLAYERS
2026 PROJECTED STARTERS| SLOT | PLAYER | YEAR | HS Stars | NOTES / NFL OUTLOOK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Rocco Becht | Sr | ★★★★★ | TOP TRANSFER Iowa State transfer (3-star out of HS, 247Sports' No. 8 transfer QB / No. 25 overall in the 2026 portal); 26 career wins, 2nd-most in ISU history behind Brock Purdy. Followed Campbell and OC Taylor Mouser to State College. |
| RB1 | James Peoples | — | ★★★★★ | Steps into the lead role after Penn State's star duo (Nick Singleton, Kaytron Allen) both departed for the NFL Draft; part of a backfield reset alongside Carson Hansen and Quinton Martin Jr. |
| WR1 | Receiving corps in transition | — | ★★★★★ | Penn State loses its top three 2025 targets (Kyron Hudson, Trebor Pena, Liam Clifford) to eligibility/departure; confirm specific 2026 starters closer to Week 1 as the room is rebuilt under a new staff. |
QB1Rocco BechtSr★★★★★
TOP TRANSFER
Iowa State transfer (3-star out of HS, 247Sports' No. 8 transfer QB / No. 25 overall in the 2026 portal); 26 career wins, 2nd-most in ISU history behind Brock Purdy. Followed Campbell and OC Taylor Mouser to State College.
RB1James Peoples—★★★★★
Steps into the lead role after Penn State's star duo (Nick Singleton, Kaytron Allen) both departed for the NFL Draft; part of a backfield reset alongside Carson Hansen and Quinton Martin Jr.
WR1Receiving corps in transition—★★★★★
Penn State loses its top three 2025 targets (Kyron Hudson, Trebor Pena, Liam Clifford) to eligibility/departure; confirm specific 2026 starters closer to Week 1 as the room is rebuilt under a new staff.
OFFENSIVE LINE
2026 PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | YEAR | HS Stars | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi Goodman | LT | — | ★★★★★ | 5-STAR Former five-star signee; the top option at left tackle in an open competition, replacing 1st-round pick Vega Ioane and two other NFL Draft departures (Drew Shelton, Nolan Rucci). |
| Trevor Buhr | LG | — | ★★★★★ | Projected Week 1 starter at left guard as the line comes together under a new staff. |
| Cooper Cousins | RG | — | ★★★★★ | Projected Week 1 starter at right guard. |
| Anthony Donkoh | RT | — | ★★★★★ | Projected Week 1 starter at right tackle, rounding out a line replacing three NFL Draft picks. |
Malachi GoodmanLT—★★★★★
5-STAR
Former five-star signee; the top option at left tackle in an open competition, replacing 1st-round pick Vega Ioane and two other NFL Draft departures (Drew Shelton, Nolan Rucci).
Trevor BuhrLG—★★★★★
Projected Week 1 starter at left guard as the line comes together under a new staff.
Cooper CousinsRG—★★★★★
Projected Week 1 starter at right guard.
Anthony DonkohRT—★★★★★
Projected Week 1 starter at right tackle, rounding out a line replacing three NFL Draft picks.
HANDICAPPING NOTE — O-LINE
- Losing a first-round talent (Ioane) plus two more draft picks up front, on top of a totally new coaching staff, is significant compounding risk — treat this line as a genuine unknown into the season.
DEFENSIVE LINE
2026 PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | NOTES |
|---|---|---|
| Front seven rebuilt | DL | Penn State loses Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zane Durant among 8 total NFL Draft picks; new DC Jon Heacock (from Iowa State) installs a new scheme around largely new personnel. |
Front seven rebuiltDL
Penn State loses Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zane Durant among 8 total NFL Draft picks; new DC Jon Heacock (from Iowa State) installs a new scheme around largely new personnel.
LINEBACKERS
2026 PROJECTED- Max Granville anchors a linebacker/edge group being rebuilt under new DC Jon Heacock — part of a broader defensive reset after significant NFL Draft losses across the front seven.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
2026 PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | HS Stars | NOTES / NFL OUTLOOK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary anchor: Marcus | — | — | Projected Week 1 starter at safety, joined by cornerbacks Audavion Collins and Daryus Dixson, with Zion Tracy at slot corner — rounding out the new-look secondary under DC Jon Heacock. |
| — | S | ★★★★★ | |
| Neal Jr. | — | — |
Secondary anchor: Marcus—
Projected Week 1 starter at safety, joined by cornerbacks Audavion Collins and Daryus Dixson, with Zion Tracy at slot corner — rounding out the new-look secondary under DC Jon Heacock.
—S★★★★★
Neal Jr.—
SPECIAL TEAMS
KICKING, PUNTING & RETURN GAME- Overall: No major specialist storylines flagged for 2026. The offseason narrative here is almost entirely about the coaching transition; special-teams specifics were light in early reporting — confirm kicker/punter names closer to Week 1.
Betting profile — vs. the number
2025 ATS
5-8
38.5% cover rate — 63rd of 82
2025 Straight up
7-6
Point differential +136
Scoring environment
51.5
Combined points per game — 44th highest of 82
Home / road ATS
2-5 · 2-3
Totals 8-5 O/U (4-3 home, 4-1 road)
Points scored / allowed
31 per game scored (24th) · 20.5 allowed (24th)
Margin & schedule
Margin of victory +10.5 (24th) · Strength of schedule +2
- Home / road: Home 2-5 ATS, road 2-3 ATS (neutral-site games excluded).
- Home / road: Totals 8-5 O/U — 4-3 at home, 4-1 on the road.
- Trend: 2025 ATS 5-8 (38.5% cover rate) across 13 games.
- Trend: Averaged 31 points and allowed 20.5, a 51.5 combined per-game scoring environment.
Power ratings — strength against the field
SRS power rating
+9.8
20th of 82 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field
Offensive SRS
+7.3
18th of 82
Defensive SRS
+6.4
21st of 82
Points (margin of victory)
+10.5 · 24th of 82
Against the spread
5-8 (38.5%) · 63rd of 82
Totals (combined PPG)
51.5 · 44th of 82
Computed from CollegeFootballData 2025 results and closing consensus lines.
Notes
Saved Just J research for Penn State.
The coaching search itself devastated the 2026 recruiting class
Penn State's class fell to No. 134 nationally as commits fled (11 to Franklin's new program at Virginia Tech alone) during the 54-day search — a real, quantifiable cost of front-office dysfunction.
Quarterback
Campbell imported his entire operation
QB Rocco Becht, OC Taylor Mouser, and other Iowa State staff all followed him to State College — a full program transplant rather than a from-scratch rebuild, which should reduce (not eliminate) Year 1 installation risk.
Offensive Line
Offensive line outlook
Losing a first-round talent (Ioane) plus two more draft picks up front, on top of a totally new coaching staff, is significant compounding risk — treat this line as a genuine unknown into the season.
Notes are maintained in the Admin area — no code changes required.