Extreme in-season variance in 2025
A 4-0 start (with a ranked win) turned into a 1-8 finish — that kind of collapse invites real questions about depth and development that carry into 2026. Live fade-the-hot-start angle if it happens again.
SEC FOOTBALL COMPANION GUIDE • ALPHABETICAL 8 OF 16
MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS
2026 Season Snapshot • Starkville, Mississippi
5-8 (1-7 SEC)
SEC
2026 Schedule
Live schedule, lines and results for Mississippi State.
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HEAD COACH
HANDICAPPING PROFILEHEAD COACH
Jeff Lebby — 3rd season at Mississippi State
LIFETIME COACHING RECORD
7–18 at Mississippi State
Went 2-10 in 2024, then 5-8 in 2025 (a 4-0 start including a win over then- No. 12 Arizona State before fading). A well-regarded offensive mind with top- 6 national offenses as a coordinator at UCF, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma, but still searching for his first winning season as a head coach.
MISSISSIPPI STATE ATS RECORD
No published ATS record available for Lebby's tenure
Mississippi State finished 2025 at 5-8 (1-7 SEC), capped by a 29-43 Duke's Mayo Bowl loss to Wake Forest. The 4-0 start followed by a 1-8 collapse the rest of the way is the headline storyline of Lebby's second season.
HEAD COACH SALARY (2026)
$4.25M
TEAM NIL VALUATION (EST.)
Not disclosed
PRIMARY NIL COLLECTIVE
Not publicly named
Coach salary per Yahoo Sports' SEC coaching salary rankings (USA Today database), the lowest of any current SEC head coach. Mississippi State has not disclosed a team NIL figure.
HANDICAPPING NOTES
- Extreme in-season variance in 2025: A 4-0 start (with a ranked win) turned into a 1-8 finish — that kind of collapse invites real questions about depth and development that carry into 2026. Live fade-the-hot-start angle if it happens again.
- Defense is the swing skill: New DC Zach Arnett (a Starkville retread from 2020-22) inherits a unit that "must improve its run defense after struggling the last two seasons" per beat coverage — a clear, specific weakness to track in run-heavy matchups. Lebby's offenses have historically been explosive as a coordinator (top-6 national total offense three times) — if that translates with Kamario Taylor now entrenched at QB1, MSU's own team totals could play differently than the win-loss record suggests.
COORDINATORS & SCHEME
OFFENSE / DEFENSEOFFENSIVE COORDINATOR
Jeff Lebby calls plays • Veer and shoot
Same system that produced multiple 3,000-yard passers (Dillon Gabriel, Matt Corral) at UCF and Ole Miss. QB Kamario Taylor is a no-doubt starter for the first time in his career, giving Lebby continuity at the position after two years of instability.
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR
Zach Arnett — 4th season overall at MSU (1st this stint) • Multiple
Replaces the fired Coleman Hutzler. Arnett previously served as MSU's DC from 2020-22 and briefly as head coach in 2023 following Mike Leach's death, before being let go himself. Spent 2024-25 as an analyst at Ole Miss and Florida State — a retread hire meant to stabilize a defense that's struggled with the run for two straight years.
2025 SEASON RECAP
RECORD & VENUE NOTES2025 RECORD
5–8 (1–7 SEC)
Started 4-0, including a win over then-No. 12 Arizona State, then collapsed to 1-8 down the stretch, closing with a Duke's Mayo Bowl loss to Wake Forest (29-43).
HOME FIELD
Davis Wade Stadium
Natural grass, Starkville. A tough, loud SEC environment (Cowbells) that can be a factor for an underdog Bulldogs team looking to spring an upset at home.
PRIMARY SKILL PLAYERS
2026 PROJECTED STARTERS| SLOT | PLAYER | YEAR | HS Stars | NOTES / NFL OUTLOOK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Kamario Taylor | Soph | ★★★★★ | The no-doubt starter for the first time in his career after starting multiple games in 2025; Lebby's offense finally has continuity at the position. Highest-rated QB signee in program history. |
| RB1 | Fluff Bothwell | Soph | ★★★★★ | South Alabama transfer with real All-SEC upside per beat writers; the clear centerpiece of the run game. |
| WR1 | Anthony Evans III | Sr | ★★★★★ | Georgia transfer (consensus four-star, 2023 class); returning leading receiver (67 rec, 831 yds, 5 TD in 2025) who turned down the NFL Draft to chase the program's all-time receiving record. |
| WR2 | Marquis Johnson | — | ★★★★★ | Three-star signee (Dickinson HS, Texas). Missouri transfer (66 career catches, 1,075 yds, 6 TD) added as a deep-threat complement to Evans in the retooled receiving corps. |
QB1Kamario TaylorSoph★★★★★
The no-doubt starter for the first time in his career after starting multiple games in 2025; Lebby's offense finally has continuity at the position. Highest-rated QB signee in program history.
RB1Fluff BothwellSoph★★★★★
South Alabama transfer with real All-SEC upside per beat writers; the clear centerpiece of the run game.
WR1Anthony Evans IIISr★★★★★
Georgia transfer (consensus four-star, 2023 class); returning leading receiver (67 rec, 831 yds, 5 TD in 2025) who turned down the NFL Draft to chase the program's all-time receiving record.
WR2Marquis Johnson—★★★★★
Three-star signee (Dickinson HS, Texas). Missouri transfer (66 career catches, 1,075 yds, 6 TD) added as a deep-threat complement to Evans in the retooled receiving corps.
OFFENSIVE LINE
2026 PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | YEAR | HS Stars | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full portal supplement | OL | — | ★★★★★ | Just 1 returning starter with no multi-game experience back; two additional projected starters arrive via the 2026 transfer portal class. |
Full portal supplementOL—★★★★★
Just 1 returning starter with no multi-game experience back; two additional projected starters arrive via the 2026 transfer portal class.
HANDICAPPING NOTE — O-LINE
- This line is being rebuilt almost entirely through the portal for a third straight year under Lebby — continuity up front remains one of the program's core, recurring issues.
DEFENSIVE LINE
2026 PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | NOTES |
|---|---|---|
| Dealyn Evans | DL | Texas A&M transfer brought in to bolster a run defense that has struggled in each of the last two seasons. |
| Amaree Williams | DL | Florida State transfer joining the rebuilt front. |
Dealyn EvansDL
Texas A&M transfer brought in to bolster a run defense that has struggled in each of the last two seasons.
Amaree WilliamsDL
Florida State transfer joining the rebuilt front.
LINEBACKERS
2026 PROJECTED- Mississippi State's clearest returning strength: Zakari Tillman , Jalen Smith and Tyler Lockhart form what beat writers call a "clear-cut top three" at linebacker, giving new DC Zach Arnett a proven core to build the run defense around.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
2026 PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | HS Stars | NOTES / NFL OUTLOOK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary CB1 | CB | ★★★★★ | A projected first-round 2027 NFL Draft prospect anchors the cornerback room per multiple outlets; who plays opposite him is a live fall-camp battle. |
Secondary CB1CB★★★★★
A projected first-round 2027 NFL Draft prospect anchors the cornerback room per multiple outlets; who plays opposite him is a live fall-camp battle.
SPECIAL TEAMS
KICKING, PUNTING & RETURN GAME- Overall: No major specialist storylines reported for 2026 — a normal offseason competition under a staff now in its third year together on defense (Arnett) and offense (Lebby). Confirm specific kicker/punter names closer to the Sept. 5 opener vs. Louisiana-Monroe.
Betting profile — vs. the number
2025 ATS
8-5
61.5% cover rate — 18th of 82
2025 Straight up
5-8
Point differential +2
Scoring environment
60.6
Combined points per game — 7th highest of 82
Home / road ATS
5-2 · 3-2
Totals 7-6 O/U (4-3 home, 2-3 road)
Points scored / allowed
30.4 per game scored (30th) · 30.2 allowed (65th)
Margin & schedule
Margin of victory +0.2 (52nd) · Strength of schedule +0.9
- Home / road: Home 5-2 ATS, road 3-2 ATS (neutral-site games excluded).
- Home / road: Totals 7-6 O/U — 4-3 at home, 2-3 on the road.
- Trend: 2025 ATS 8-5 (61.5% cover rate) across 13 games.
- Trend: Averaged 30.4 points and allowed 30.2, a 60.6 combined per-game scoring environment.
Power ratings — strength against the field
SRS power rating
-1.9
54th of 82 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field
Offensive SRS
+4
34th of 82
Defensive SRS
-3.9
64th of 82
Points (margin of victory)
+0.2 · 52nd of 82
Against the spread
8-5 (61.5%) · 18th of 82
Totals (combined PPG)
60.6 · 7th of 82
Computed from CollegeFootballData 2025 results and closing consensus lines.
Notes
Saved Just J research for Mississippi State.
Defense is the swing skill
New DC Zach Arnett (a Starkville retread from 2020-22) inherits a unit that "must improve its run defense after struggling the last two seasons" per beat coverage — a clear, specific weakness to track in run-heavy matchups.
Coaching
Handicapping note
Lebby's offenses have historically been explosive as a coordinator (top-6 national total offense three times) — if that translates with Kamario Taylor now entrenched at QB1, MSU's own team totals could play differently than the win-loss record suggests.
Offensive Line
Offensive line outlook
This line is being rebuilt almost entirely through the portal for a third straight year under Lebby — continuity up front remains one of the program's core, recurring issues.
Notes are maintained in the Admin area — no code changes required.