ACC FOOTBALL COMPANION GUIDE • ALPHABETICAL 4 OF 17
2026 Season Snapshot • Durham, North Carolina
9–5
ACC
Live schedule, lines and results for Duke.
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HEAD COACH
Manny Diaz — 3rd season at Duke
LIFETIME COACHING RECORD
39–24 (college, 2 programs)
Previously led Miami (2019-21) and served as Penn State's defensive coordinator before Duke hired him in Dec. 2023. Delivered the program's first ACC title since 1989 in just his second season (2025), plus a Sun Bowl win — a stunning turnaround that earned him a market-resetting 8-year extension.
DUKE ATS RECORD
No single published career ATS figure
Duke finished 2025 at 9-5 (6-2 ACC), including an overtime ACC Championship win over Virginia and a Sun Bowl win over Arizona State. A regular-season 7-5 record undersold a team that went 3-0 against ranked opponents down the stretch — a real, live streak.
HEAD COACH SALARY (2026)
$8.0M
TEAM NIL VALUATION (EST.)
Not disclosed
PRIMARY NIL COLLECTIVE
Not publicly named
Coach salary per CanesInSight/beat reporting: an 8-yr extension averaging $8M annually plus a $1M annual retention bonus, signed after Duke's 2025 ACC title. Duke has not disclosed a team NIL figure; individual player valuations (e.g., RB Nate Sheppard at $257,795 for 2026) are tracked by On3.
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR
Jonathan Brewer • 3rd season • Spread
Enters year three needing to replace Mensah and Barkate simultaneously. Walker Eget (San Jose State transfer) is a name in the mix at QB; RB Nate Sheppard (ACC title-game TD scorer) returns as the clear offensive centerpiece, one of the only proven skill-position pieces left from the championship roster.
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR
Jonathan Patke • 3rd season • Multiple
Enters year three with real continuity, though Bill Connelly's SP+ ranks the defense just 81st nationally entering the season — a genuine area of concern for a defensive-minded head coach's program.
2025 RECORD
9–5, ACC Champions
ACC Championship: W 27-20 (OT) vs. Virginia. Sun Bowl: W 42-39 vs. Arizona State. Duke's first ACC title since 1989, capping a real, historic turnaround in Diaz's second season.
HOME FIELD
Wallace Wade Stadium
Bermuda grass (Latitude 36), Durham. Host of the program's first ACC title in 36 years — a genuinely elevated home environment now facing a real test of sustainability after the title core's departure.
| SLOT | PLAYER | YEAR | HS Stars | NOTES / NFL OUTLOOK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Walker Eget | — | ★★★★★ | TOP TRANSFER Three-star signee (West Ranch HS, Stevenson Ranch, Calif.). San Jose State transfer; part of a QB room being rebuilt from scratch after Darian Mensah (2025 ACC title-game starter) transferred to Miami. One of eight transfers relied upon in Duke's projected starting 22 for 2026. |
| RB1 | Nate Sheppard | — | ★★★★★ | Three-star signee (Mandeville HS, Louisiana; four-star per On3/Rivals). 2025 Second-Team All-ACC; scored a touchdown in the ACC Championship win over Virginia and is considered by beat writers the most sure thing on Duke's entire 2026 roster. |
Three-star signee (West Ranch HS, Stevenson Ranch, Calif.). San Jose State transfer; part of a QB room being rebuilt from scratch after Darian Mensah (2025 ACC title-game starter) transferred to Miami. One of eight transfers relied upon in Duke's projected starting 22 for 2026.
Three-star signee (Mandeville HS, Louisiana; four-star per On3/Rivals). 2025 Second-Team All-ACC; scored a touchdown in the ACC Championship win over Virginia and is considered by beat writers the most sure thing on Duke's entire 2026 roster.
| PLAYER | POS | YEAR | HS Stars | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line rebuilt after title-team turnover | OL | — | ★★★★★ | Part of a roster retaining just 49% of its production per Bill Connelly's metrics; specific 2026 starters to be confirmed closer to Week 1. |
Part of a roster retaining just 49% of its production per Bill Connelly's metrics; specific 2026 starters to be confirmed closer to Week 1.
| PLAYER | POS | NOTES |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Davis | DE | Returning contributor who had a notable tackle for loss against North Carolina in 2025; part of a defensive front that must improve on an 81st-ranked SP+ unit. |
Returning contributor who had a notable tackle for loss against North Carolina in 2025; part of a defensive front that must improve on an 81st-ranked SP+ unit.
| PLAYER | POS | HS Stars | NOTES / NFL OUTLOOK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary under Patke | DB | ★★★★★ | Part of the defense needing real improvement in year three; specific 2026 starters to be confirmed closer to Week 1. |
Part of the defense needing real improvement in year three; specific 2026 starters to be confirmed closer to Week 1.
2025 ATS
7-7
50% cover rate — 41st of 82
2025 Straight up
9-5
Point differential +72
Scoring environment
64
Combined points per game — 3rd highest of 82
Home / road ATS
2-4 · 4-2
Totals 10-4 O/U (4-2 home, 5-1 road)
Points scored / allowed
34.6 per game scored (10th) · 29.4 allowed (62nd)
Margin & schedule
Margin of victory +5.1 (38th) · Strength of schedule -0.9
SRS power rating
+3.8
40th of 82 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field
Offensive SRS
+9.2
11th of 82
Defensive SRS
-4.5
66th of 82
Points (margin of victory)
+5.1 · 38th of 82
Against the spread
7-7 (50%) · 41st of 82
Totals (combined PPG)
64 · 3rd of 82
Computed from CollegeFootballData 2025 results and closing consensus lines.
Saved Just J research for Duke.
the portal giveth, the portal taketh: Diaz used the transfer portal heavily to build the 2025 title team, then watched his starting QB (Darian Mensah) and top WR (Cooper Barkate) both leave for Miami in the same offseason — Duke retains just 49% of its production per Bill Connelly's returning-production metric, 77th nationally.
Diaz's new deal ($8M/yr plus $1M retention bonus) came right as the roster turned over significantly — a real test of whether the culture/system matters more than the specific players.
ESPN FPI projects Duke at 6-6 and gives the Blue Devils the 8th-easiest ACC schedule; beat writers frame anything past 7 wins as exceeding expectations after the title-team exodus.
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