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ACC FOOTBALL COMPANION GUIDE • ALPHABETICAL 2 OF 17

CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS

2026 Season Snapshot • Berkeley, California

7–6 (4–4 ACC)

ACC

2026 Schedule

Live schedule, lines and results for California.

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HEAD COACH

HANDICAPPING PROFILE

HEAD COACH

Tosh Lupoi — 1st season at California

LIFETIME COACHING RECORD

First college head-coaching job

A Cal alum who played defensive line for the Golden Bears (2000-05) before rising through the program's coaching staff and later serving as Alabama's and Oregon's defensive coordinator. Hired in Dec. 2025 after Justin Wilcox was fired mid-season (48-55 over nine years, despite a 2022 extension through 2027) — a homecoming hire specifically built around retaining breakout freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

CALIFORNIA ATS RECORD

No single published career ATS figure

Cal finished 2025 at 7-6 (4-4 ACC) under Wilcox/interim Nick Rolovich, capped by a Hawaii Bowl loss. Wilcox's firing came despite a signature 38-35 upset of SMU late in the season — a real case of a big extension not guaranteeing job security once results didn't follow.

HEAD COACH SALARY (2026)

~$2.0M (waived Oregon

TEAM NIL VALUATION (EST.)

~$30M (est.)

PRIMARY NIL COLLECTIVE

Cal General Managed (via

buyout) GM Ron Rivera) Coach salary per SI (Lupoi's prior Oregon DC salary was reported at $2M; his Oregon buyout was waived since he left for an FBS head-coaching job; a 5-yr Cal deal terms not fully public). NIL figure per SF Standard reporting citing GM Ron Rivera: Cal's total roster spending is now in the ~$30M range, in line with ACC upper-tier programs like Clemson and Florida State. QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele individually carries a reported $3M NIL deal.

HANDICAPPING NOTES

  • A real, successful retention fight after nearly losing a star for nothing: Cal lost Fernando Mendoza to the portal in 2025 (he went on to win the Heisman and a national title at Indiana); determined not to repeat that, Lupoi and GM Ron Rivera retained Sagapolutele on a reported $3M NIL deal.
  • Real, competitive financial investment for the first time in years: Rivera has stated Cal's total roster spend is now around $30M, in the range of ACC upper-tier programs like Clemson and FSU — a genuine step up for a program that "hasn't been consistently relevant in nearly 20 years."
  • Full Oregon staff import mirrors the Michigan/Kyle Whittingham pattern elsewhere in this guide: Lupoi brought several Oregon off-field staffers with him — a real attempt to transplant a proven program culture rather than build one from scratch.

COORDINATORS & SCHEME

OFFENSE / DEFENSE

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR

Jordan Somerville • 1st season • Multiple

Followed Lupoi from Oregon (by way of three seasons as the Buccaneers' assistant QB coach under Baker Mayfield). Works directly with Sagapolutele, who threw for 3,117 yds, 17 TD, 9 INT (63.6% completion) as a true freshman in 2025 — a real building block for the new staff.

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR

Michael Hutchings • 1st season • Multiple

New hire alongside co-DC Da'Von Brown, tasked with a full defensive installation for the new staff's first season.

2025 SEASON RECAP

RECORD & VENUE NOTES

2025 RECORD

7–6 (4–4 ACC)

Hawaii Bowl: L 31-35 vs. Hawaii. A signature 38-35 upset of SMU highlighted Sagapolutele's freshman breakout, but Wilcox was fired with one game left in the regular season regardless.

HOME FIELD

California Memorial Stadium

Artificial turf (FieldTurf), Berkeley. A program with real new financial backing and a homecoming coach specifically brought in to keep talent like Sagapolutele from leaving — the clearest test yet of whether Cal can compete financially in the modern ACC.

PRIMARY SKILL PLAYERS

2026 PROJECTED STARTERS
QB1Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleSoph

Four-star signee (top-100 recruit, Hawaii); threw for 3,117 yds, 17 TD, 9 INT (63.6% completion) as a true freshman, leading Cal to a 7-5 record. Turned down transfer interest (including a brief Oregon flip) to return; individually carries a reported $3M NIL deal.

RB1Adam MohammadSoph
TOP TRANSFER

Three-star signee (Apollo HS, Glendale, Ariz.). Washington transfer who followed his backfield mate onto the market after Jonah Coleman's NFL exit left the Huskies' room crowded; rushed for 523 yds, 5 TD on 4.9 ypc in 2025, including back-to-back 100-yard games. Cal considers him a real transfer-portal steal and its clear No. 1 back.

OFFENSIVE LINE

2026 PROJECTED
Line protecting a $3M investmentOL

Tasked with protecting Cal's biggest individual financial commitment; specific 2026 starters to be confirmed closer to Week 1.

HANDICAPPING NOTE — O-LINE

  • Protecting Sagapolutele is the single highest offensive priority for the new staff — worth tracking early pass-protection numbers as a signal of how quickly the new system gels.

DEFENSIVE LINE

2026 PROJECTED
Justin BeadlesDE

New Mexico State transfer, one of several portal additions brought in by the new staff to reinforce a defensive front being installed fresh under Michael Hutchings.

LINEBACKERS

2026 PROJECTED
  • Tristan Jernigan (Texas A&M transfer) joins a linebacker corps being rebuilt under the new defensive staff, part of a broader, well-funded portal effort to upgrade the roster around Sagapolutele.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

2026 PROJECTED
Cam SidneyDB

Withdrew from the transfer portal to stay at Cal in January 2026 — a real, early sign that Lupoi's retention push extended beyond just the starting quarterback.

SPECIAL TEAMS

KICKING, PUNTING & RETURN GAME
  • Overall: No major specialist storylines flagged for 2026. Urban Meyer has publicly named Lupoi among the top-3 potential-impact new head coaches nationally for 2026 — real outside credibility behind a program making its most serious financial push in nearly two decades.

Betting profile — vs. the number

2025 ATS

5-8

38.5% cover rate — 66th of 82

2025 Straight up

7-6

Point differential -24

Scoring environment

52.5

Combined points per game — 40th highest of 82

Home / road ATS

2-4 · 3-4

Totals 5-8 O/U (2-4 home, 3-4 road)

Points scored / allowed

25.3 per game scored (55th) · 27.2 allowed (55th)

Margin & schedule

Margin of victory -1.8 (57th) · Strength of schedule -2.9

  • Home / road: Home 2-4 ATS, road 3-4 ATS (neutral-site games excluded).
  • Home / road: Totals 5-8 O/U — 2-4 at home, 3-4 on the road.
  • Trend: 2025 ATS 5-8 (38.5% cover rate) across 13 games.
  • Trend: Averaged 25.3 points and allowed 27.2, a 52.5 combined per-game scoring environment.

Power ratings — strength against the field

SRS power rating

-4.5

60th of 82 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field

Offensive SRS

-0.2

46th of 82

Defensive SRS

-3.8

63rd of 82

Points (margin of victory)

-1.8 · 57th of 82

Against the spread

5-8 (38.5%) · 66th of 82

Totals (combined PPG)

52.5 · 40th of 82

Computed from CollegeFootballData 2025 results and closing consensus lines.

Notes

Saved Just J research for California.

Program Context

A real, successful retention fight after nearly losing a star for nothing

Cal lost Fernando Mendoza to the portal in 2025 (he went on to win the Heisman and a national title at Indiana); determined not to repeat that, Lupoi and GM Ron Rivera retained Sagapolutele on a reported $3M NIL deal.

Program Context

Real, competitive financial investment for the first time in years

Rivera has stated Cal's total roster spend is now around $30M, in the range of ACC upper-tier programs like Clemson and FSU — a genuine step up for a program that "hasn't been consistently relevant in nearly 20 years."

Full Oregon staff import mirrors the Michigan/Kyle Whittingham pattern elsewhere in this guide

Lupoi brought several Oregon off-field staffers with him — a real attempt to transplant a proven program culture rather than build one from scratch.

Notes are maintained in the Admin area — no code changes required.