Elite stats, poor results is a real, repeatable pattern to watch
Robertson's 2025 (3,681 yds, 31 TD, but 12 INT and a 5-7 record) is the exact profile to be skeptical of heading into 2026 — production numbers alone didn't win Baylor games.
BIG 12 FOOTBALL COMPANION GUIDE • ALPHABETICAL 3 OF 16
BAYLOR BEARS
2026 Season Snapshot • Waco, Texas
5-7 (Big 12)
BIG 12
2026 Schedule
Live schedule, lines and results for Baylor.
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HEAD COACH
HANDICAPPING PROFILEHEAD COACH
Dave Aranda — 7th season at Baylor
LIFETIME COACHING RECORD
43–44 at Baylor
LSU's defensive coordinator during their 2019 national title before taking over at Baylor in 2020. Delivered a Big 12 title and Sugar Bowl win in 2021 (12-2), but results have been inconsistent since — extended through 2029 after a stretch of retention decisions tied more to program stability than sustained results.
BAYLOR ATS RECORD
No single published career ATS figure
2025 finished 5-7 (11th in the Big 12), missing a bowl despite QB Sawyer Robertson leading all Power 4 passers in yardage (3,681 yds). A real case of empty box-score stats: elite passing volume didn't translate into wins, and Robertson's national QB ranking fell from No. 8 in early October to No. 33 by season's end as turnovers piled up.
HEAD COACH SALARY (2026)
$4.7M
TEAM NIL VALUATION (EST.)
Not disclosed
PRIMARY NIL COLLECTIVE
GXG
Coach salary per USA Today's 2025 compensation survey ($4,702,570, No. 9 in the Big 12); Baylor is a private school and does not disclose updated figures. Baylor has not disclosed a team NIL figure; GXG (est. 2022, partnered with Learfield) is the program's primary collective. QB DJ Lagway individually carries a $1M+ NIL valuation per The NIL Standard, the only Bear above seven figures.
HANDICAPPING NOTES
- Elite stats, poor results is a real, repeatable pattern to watch: Robertson's 2025 (3,681 yds, 31 TD, but 12 INT and a 5-7 record) is the exact profile to be skeptical of heading into 2026 — production numbers alone didn't win Baylor games.
- Total QB and DC reset simultaneously: New starter DJ Lagway (former five-star) and new DC Joe Klanderman are both new to the program at once — real installation risk on both sides of the ball in the same season.
- Program made its single largest individual NIL bet ever: Lagway is Baylor's only seven-figure NIL player per The NIL Standard — a real, quantifiable sign of how much the program is betting on him personally to fix the turnover problem.
COORDINATORS & SCHEME
OFFENSE / DEFENSEOFFENSIVE COORDINATOR
Jake Spavital — 3rd season • Air raid
Inherits a genuine change at QB: former five-star DJ Lagway (Florida transfer) replaces the since-departed Sawyer Robertson. Spavital's system produced one of the nation's most prolific passing attacks in 2025 on a raw- yardage basis; the question is whether Lagway can cut down on the turnovers that plagued his two years at Florida.
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR
Joe Klanderman • 1st season • Multiple
New hire tasked with fixing a defense PFF and beat writers called disappointing in 2025. Inherits returning safety Jacob Redding (team-best 75.2 PFF grade) as a building block, plus FIU transfer Travion Barnes stepping into a leadership linebacker role.
2025 SEASON RECAP
RECORD & VENUE NOTES2025 RECORD
5–7 (Big 12)
Missed a bowl game despite Robertson's Power 4-leading passing yardage; a disappointing finish that led directly to a defensive coordinator change and an aggressive, seven-figure QB portal move for 2026.
HOME FIELD
McLane Stadium
Artificial turf (Matrix Turf), Waco. A program that has swung between Big 12 title contention (2021) and bottom-of-conference finishes (2025) under Aranda — genuine season-to-season variance worth pricing carefully.
PRIMARY SKILL PLAYERS
2026 PROJECTED STARTERS| SLOT | PLAYER | YEAR | HS Stars | NOTES / NFL OUTLOOK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | DJ Lagway | Jr | ★★★★★ | 5-STARTOP TRANSFER Florida transfer and former five-star (top-5 national recruit); Baylor's only seven-figure NIL player (The NIL Standard) in his first fully healthy offseason after turnover issues limited him in two years at Florida. |
| RB1 | Dawson Pendergrass | — | ★★★★★ | Three-star signee (Mineola HS, Texas; 3,184 rush yds, 38 TD as a senior). Missed all of 2025 with a season-ending foot injury; healthy and back as the presumptive lead back after posting 671 yds, 6 TD in 2024. Bryson Washington (2024 Baylor freshman rushing record-holder) transferred to Auburn this offseason. |
| WR1 | Dre'lon Miller | — | ★★★★★ | TOP TRANSFER Four-star signee (Silsbee HS, Texas; No. 11 receiver nationally in 2024). Colorado transfer specifically compared to departed star Josh Cameron by Baylor's own WR coach ("big dude that can move"); Josh Cameron, Kole Wilson, Ashtyn Hawkins and Kobe Prentice are all gone (NFL Draft/graduation). |
| WR2 | Gavin Freeman | — | ★★★★★ | TOP TRANSFER Oklahoma State transfer brought in as part of a near-total receiving corps reset; one of three portal additions (with Miller, San Diego State's Louis Brown IV) expected to lead the room in 2026. |
QB1DJ LagwayJr★★★★★
5-STARTOP TRANSFER
Florida transfer and former five-star (top-5 national recruit); Baylor's only seven-figure NIL player (The NIL Standard) in his first fully healthy offseason after turnover issues limited him in two years at Florida.
RB1Dawson Pendergrass—★★★★★
Three-star signee (Mineola HS, Texas; 3,184 rush yds, 38 TD as a senior). Missed all of 2025 with a season-ending foot injury; healthy and back as the presumptive lead back after posting 671 yds, 6 TD in 2024. Bryson Washington (2024 Baylor freshman rushing record-holder) transferred to Auburn this offseason.
WR1Dre'lon Miller—★★★★★
TOP TRANSFER
Four-star signee (Silsbee HS, Texas; No. 11 receiver nationally in 2024). Colorado transfer specifically compared to departed star Josh Cameron by Baylor's own WR coach ("big dude that can move"); Josh Cameron, Kole Wilson, Ashtyn Hawkins and Kobe Prentice are all gone (NFL Draft/graduation).
WR2Gavin Freeman—★★★★★
TOP TRANSFER
Oklahoma State transfer brought in as part of a near-total receiving corps reset; one of three portal additions (with Miller, San Diego State's Louis Brown IV) expected to lead the room in 2026.
OFFENSIVE LINE
2026 PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | YEAR | HS Stars | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line protecting a new QB | OL | — | ★★★★★ | Tasked with protecting Baylor's biggest single NIL investment in Lagway; specific 2026 starters to be confirmed closer to Week 1. |
Line protecting a new QBOL—★★★★★
Tasked with protecting Baylor's biggest single NIL investment in Lagway; specific 2026 starters to be confirmed closer to Week 1.
HANDICAPPING NOTE — O-LINE
- Protecting a turnover-prone QB behind a new scheme is a real compounding risk — Lagway's interception rate at Florida is worth tracking against Baylor's pass- protection numbers early in 2026.
DEFENSIVE LINE
2026 PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | NOTES |
|---|---|---|
| Garrick Ponder | DL | TOP TRANSFER Southern Miss transfer and Baylor's second-highest-paid player per The NIL Standard; disruptive in the backfield last season (37 tackles, 11.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks). |
Garrick PonderDL
TOP TRANSFER
Southern Miss transfer and Baylor's second-highest-paid player per The NIL Standard; disruptive in the backfield last season (37 tackles, 11.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks).
LINEBACKERS
2026 PROJECTED- Travion Barnes (FIU transfer) steps into the leadership role vacated by Keaton Thomas; a top-five tackler nationally before a season-ending injury limited his 2025 debut, positioned for a bounce-back season as new DC Joe Klanderman's on-field leader.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
2026 PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | HS Stars | NOTES / NFL OUTLOOK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Redding | S | ★★★★★ | Former walk-on who led the defense with a 75.2 PFF grade in 2025 (best run-defense grade on the team, 81.4); arguably the best returning player on a defense that otherwise disappointed. |
Jacob ReddingS★★★★★
Former walk-on who led the defense with a 75.2 PFF grade in 2025 (best run-defense grade on the team, 81.4); arguably the best returning player on a defense that otherwise disappointed.
SPECIAL TEAMS
KICKING, PUNTING & RETURN GAME- Overall: No major specialist storylines flagged for 2026. With a new QB, new DC, and a defense searching for stability, Baylor's season likely hinges on whether Lagway's NIL investment translates to fewer turnovers than Robertson's high-volume, high-mistake 2025.
Betting profile — vs. the number
2025 ATS
2-10
16.7% cover rate — 81st of 82
2025 Straight up
5-7
Point differential -18
Scoring environment
63.7
Combined points per game — 4th highest of 82
Home / road ATS
1-6 · 1-4
Totals 6-6 O/U (3-4 home, 3-2 road)
Points scored / allowed
31.1 per game scored (23rd) · 32.6 allowed (75th)
Margin & schedule
Margin of victory -1.5 (56th) · Strength of schedule +4
- Home / road: Home 1-6 ATS, road 1-4 ATS (neutral-site games excluded).
- Home / road: Totals 6-6 O/U — 3-4 at home, 3-2 on the road.
- Trend: 2025 ATS 2-10 (16.7% cover rate) across 12 games.
- Trend: Averaged 31.1 points and allowed 32.6, a 63.7 combined per-game scoring environment.
Power ratings — strength against the field
SRS power rating
+1.5
44th of 82 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field
Offensive SRS
+7.2
19th of 82
Defensive SRS
-5.9
71st of 82
Points (margin of victory)
-1.5 · 56th of 82
Against the spread
2-10 (16.7%) · 81st of 82
Totals (combined PPG)
63.7 · 4th of 82
Computed from CollegeFootballData 2025 results and closing consensus lines.
Notes
Saved Just J research for Baylor.
Quarterback
Total QB and DC reset simultaneously
New starter DJ Lagway (former five-star) and new DC Joe Klanderman are both new to the program at once — real installation risk on both sides of the ball in the same season.
Program Context
Program made its single largest individual NIL bet ever
Lagway is Baylor's only seven-figure NIL player per The NIL Standard — a real, quantifiable sign of how much the program is betting on him personally to fix the turnover problem.
Offensive Line
Offensive line outlook
Protecting a turnover-prone QB behind a new scheme is a real compounding risk — Lagway's interception rate at Florida is worth tracking against Baylor's pass- protection numbers early in 2026.
Notes are maintained in the Admin area — no code changes required.