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SUN BELT FOOTBALL COMPANION GUIDE • ALPHABETICAL 2 OF 14

ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES

2026 Season Snapshot • Jonesboro, Arkansas

7-6 (5-3 Sun Belt)

SBC

2026 Schedule

Live schedule, lines and results for Arkansas State.

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HEAD COACH

HANDICAPPING PROFILE

HEAD COACH

Butch Jones — 6th season at Arkansas State

LIFETIME COACHING RECORD

110–91 (17 seasons, multiple programs)

Built Cincinnati into a Big East contender before taking over Tennessee (2013-17, two 9-win seasons). After two years as an Alabama analyst under Nick Saban, Jones has quietly built Arkansas State into the Sun Belt's most consistent program not named James Madison — three straight bowl trips and three straight winning seasons, capped by a Dec. 2024 extension through 2029.

ARKANSAS STATE ATS RECORD

No single published career ATS figure

2025 finished 7-6 (5-3 Sun Belt), capped by an Xbox Bowl win over Missouri State — Arkansas State's third straight bowl appearance under Jones. A real, sustained level of competence in a conference that's historically churned through coaches quickly.

HEAD COACH SALARY (2026)

$825K+

TEAM NIL VALUATION (EST.)

Not disclosed

PRIMARY NIL COLLECTIVE

Not publicly named

Coach salary per CollegeNetWorth/247Sports (5-yr deal signed 2020, extended twice — through 2026 in 2022, then through 2029 in Dec. 2024 — base salary reported at $825K as of the most recent public figures). Arkansas State has not disclosed a team NIL figure or a named primary collective.

HANDICAPPING NOTES

  • Real, sustained program stability is the story: Three straight bowl trips and 21 wins over that span put Jones among the Sun Belt's steadiest coaches — a real contrast to the historical pattern of Arkansas State coaches leaving quickly for bigger jobs (Freeze, Malzahn, Harsin all departed after one winning season).
  • Real backfield continuity gap: RB Ja'Quez Cross, part of the program's recent offensive identity, transferred to Appalachian State this offseason — a real hole to fill in the run game.
  • Elite QB continuity anchors the 2026 outlook: Jaylen Raynor returns as (or competes to remain) the starter after climbing into Arkansas State's top-6 all-time passing yardage list — real production and experience at the most important position.

COORDINATORS & SCHEME

OFFENSE / DEFENSE

OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR

Garrett Altman — 1st season • Power spread

New hire taking over from longtime OC Keith Heckendorf (7 seasons). Inherits Jaylen Raynor and program-record receiver Corey Rucker (3,037 career receiving yards) but must replace Ja'Quez Cross's production in the run game.

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR

Griff McCarley — 2nd season • Base 4-2-5

Enters year two after switching Arkansas State's base defense from a 4-3 to a 4-2-5 in his debut season — real scheme continuity heading into 2026 after a full installation year.

2025 SEASON RECAP

RECORD & VENUE NOTES

2025 RECORD

7–6 (5–3 Sun Belt)

Xbox Bowl: W 34-28 vs. Missouri State. Arkansas State's third straight bowl trip under Jones, a real marker of program stability in a historically high- turnover conference job.

HOME FIELD

Centennial Bank Stadium

Artificial turf (ProGreen), Jonesboro. A program that's quietly become one of the Sun Belt's most consistent winners under Jones, even without the flashy coaching-carousel departures that defined the job under his predecessors.

PRIMARY SKILL PLAYERS

2026 PROJECTED STARTERS
QB1Jaylen Raynor—★★★★★

Climbed into Arkansas State's top-6 all-time passing yardage list in 2025; completed over 81% of his passes for 345 yds, 3 TD in a signature performance against Arkansas. The clear returning centerpiece of the offense.

WR1Corey Rucker—★★★★★

Holds Arkansas State's program record with 3,037 career receiving yards; the clear top returning target as new OC Garrett Altman installs his system.

OFFENSIVE LINE

2026 PROJECTED
Line under new OCOL—★★★★★

Adjusting to a new offensive coordinator after 7 years of continuity under Keith Heckendorf; specific 2026 starters to be confirmed closer to Week 1.

HANDICAPPING NOTE — O-LINE

  • A new playcaller after 7 seasons of continuity is a real scheme-installation variable, even with Raynor and Rucker both returning at the skill positions.

DEFENSIVE LINE

2026 PROJECTED
Front seven under McCarleyDL

Benefits from year-two continuity in Griff McCarley's 4-2-5 system, installed for the first time in 2025.

LINEBACKERS

2026 PROJECTED
  • Arkansas State's linebacker corps returns under the same defensive coordinator (Griff McCarley) for a second straight season — real continuity on a defense that helped deliver the program's third straight bowl season in 2025.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

2026 PROJECTED
Secondary under McCarleyDB★★★★★

Also benefits from year-two continuity in the 4-2-5 system; specific 2026 starters to be confirmed as fall camp progresses.

SPECIAL TEAMS

KICKING, PUNTING & RETURN GAME
  • Overall: No major specialist storylines flagged for 2026. Arkansas State's program-wide stability under Jones (three straight bowl trips) reflects a well-run operation across every phase heading into 2026.

Betting profile — vs. the number

2025 ATS

9-4

69.2% cover rate — 8th of 82

2025 Straight up

7-6

Point differential -29

Scoring environment

52.5

Combined points per game — 39th highest of 82

Home / road ATS

5-1 · 3-2

Totals 5-8 O/U (2-4 home, 1-4 road)

Points scored / allowed

25.2 per game scored (56th) · 27.4 allowed (57th)

Margin & schedule

Margin of victory -2.2 (58th) · Strength of schedule -11.5

  • Home / road: Home 5-1 ATS, road 3-2 ATS (neutral-site games excluded).
  • Home / road: Totals 5-8 O/U — 2-4 at home, 1-4 on the road.
  • Trend: 2025 ATS 9-4 (69.2% cover rate) across 13 games.
  • Trend: Averaged 25.2 points and allowed 27.4, a 52.5 combined per-game scoring environment.

Power ratings — strength against the field

SRS power rating

-12.8

74th of 82 — projected points vs. a league-average team on a neutral field

Offensive SRS

-11

78th of 82

Defensive SRS

-7

73rd of 82

Points (margin of victory)

-2.2 · 58th of 82

Against the spread

9-4 (69.2%) · 8th of 82

Totals (combined PPG)

52.5 · 39th of 82

Computed from CollegeFootballData 2025 results and closing consensus lines.

Notes

Saved Just J research for Arkansas State.

Running Game

Real, sustained program stability is the story

Three straight bowl trips and 21 wins over that span put Jones among the Sun Belt's steadiest coaches — a real contrast to the historical pattern of Arkansas State coaches leaving quickly for bigger jobs (Freeze, Malzahn, Harsin all departed after one winning season). Real backfield continuity gap: RB Ja'Quez Cross, part of the program's recent offensive identity, transferred to Appalachian State this offseason — a real hole to fill in the run game.

Quarterback

Elite QB continuity anchors the 2026 outlook

Jaylen Raynor returns as (or competes to remain) the starter after climbing into Arkansas State's top-6 all-time passing yardage list — real production and experience at the most important position.

Offensive Line

Offensive line outlook

A new playcaller after 7 seasons of continuity is a real scheme-installation variable, even with Raynor and Rucker both returning at the skill positions.

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