NFL
Matchup Predictor
Pick two teams and compare how each one performs against the number — ATS, totals and home/road trends — with a projected spread built from 2025 power ratings.
Projection
Projected spread
Seattle -15.7
SRS difference plus 1.5 home-field points
Projected total
47.6
Arizona 19 · Seattle 28.6
Cover rates
35.3% / 70.6%
Arizona 6-11 · Seattle 12-5 ATS
Projections are derived from 2025 Simple Rating System and scoring data in the Just J Football Companion. They are research inputs, not betting advice.
Arizona (home)
Comparison
Seattle (away)
- 6-11 (35.3%)29thATS record12-5 (70.6%)3rd
- 3-1429thStraight up14-31st
- -4.424thSRS power rating+12.81st
- 20.922ndPoints per game28.43rd
- 28.729thPoints allowed17.21st
- 49.68thCombined PPG (totals)45.618th
- -2Turnover differential-3
Arizona — Home & totals trends
Grass at State Farm Stadium · 2025: 3-14 SU, 6-11 ATS · combined 49.6 PPG (8th of 32).
- Home ATS, 2019–2023 (5-season span): 12-29-1 straight-up, 18-24 against the spread at State Farm Stadium — a persistently poor home team by both measures over that stretch, per ATS Stats' team database. More recent (2024–2025) home splits were not independently verified for this edition and should be confirmed closer to kickoff.
- Totals, 2019–2023 home games: 27-15 to the Over (64.3%) — a real, sourced trend clearing the 60% threshold; worth tracking whether an improved 2026 roster keeps pace with that Over lean or reverses it.
Seattle — Away & totals trends
Turf at Lumen Field · 2025: 14-3 SU, 12-5 ATS · combined 45.6 PPG (18th of 32).
- Mike Macdonald's Super Bowl LX-winning defense returns largely intact — the best combined SU/ATS profile in the NFC West entering 2026.